>>THE GROWTH SLOWS
The 12-month current account deficit (CAD) reached USD 51.7bn in September, corresponding to 4.8% of the GDP forecasted in the Medium Term Economic Program (OVP). The CAD and demand decrease while the growth slows.
>> THE CAB TO LIKELY TO POST A SURPLUS IN OCTOBER
The current account balance (CAB) posted a slight surplus in September, which means FX inflow exceeded FX outflow. Considering the Central Bank (CB) reserves and FX rate movements, the CAB will likely post a surplus in October. FX rates have a controlled course despite November’s high external debt rollover.
>> THE TURKISH ECONOMY STAGNATES
The Turkish economy has stagnated following the rate hikes and measures restricting loans. Industrial production and retail sales also decreased monthly in September.
>> DEFICIT TO START WHEN TOURISM SEASON ENDS
The CAB recorded almost a USD 1.9bn surplus in September with the support of the tourism revenues, which reached USD 5bn. The 9-month CAD is around USD 41bn, and the annual CAD is nearly at USD 52bn. The CAD will start again when the tourism season ends. That’s a structural defect.
>> NET E&O AT THE ALLOWABLE LEVEL
The CAB posted a USD 1.8bn surplus in September, which complies with the slowdown in economic activity. Reserves soared by USD 7.6bn with the support of a USD 5.6bn inflow from the finance account. The net errors and omissions (E&O) saw a USD 0.2bn inflow. The CAD totaled USD 40.8bn in January-September. Reserves are at minus USD 10.9bn following a USD 28.6bn capital inflow in this period. USD 10.9bn of the CAD was financed through reserves. The net E&O hovers around USD 1.4bn. It recorded a USD 20.5bn inflow in the same period of the previous year. The current net E&O is at the allowable level.
>> DEMAND AND COMMODITY PRICES TO BE DETERMINATIVE IN THE CAB
BURCU AYDIN OZUDOGRU
Excluding gold and energy, the CAB posted a USD 7.1bn surplus in September, USD 5bn of which consisted of tourism revenues. Tourism income will decrease in the next six months. The domestic demand, commodity prices, and the demand from the EU will be determinative in the CAB.