What matters this morning

Mobius Capital Partners LLP’s founder Mark Mobius said that Turkey is in recovery period like many other countries the economy will do better this year. He was among the speakers at the 11th Bosphorus Summit, which was held under ‘Living in an age of uncertainty’ theme attended by ministers, ambassadors, consul generals and businesspeople from 43 countries.

The uncertainty in an economy can only become habitable with the support of ‘reliable’ data. Considering high inflation and current account deficit in Turkey’s economy, do we see a country in recovery, as Mobius does? Annual inflation visibly exceeded 15% in February, while current account posted a USD 36.7bn deficit in 2020. Add them unemployment, one of the soft bellies of Turkish economy especially after the pandemic.

Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) released the revised unemployment data today. As part of compliance with European Union definition and standards, TurkStat is revising the employment statistics. The new data set will include results based on monthly estimation instead of three-month moving averages. Originally the release according to the new data set would start on April 12, but TurkStat announced that revise work has been completed earlier than expected. Therefore 2021 January unemployment was announced as 12.2%.

Today, USD/TRY has a calm course after it depreciated by 2% yesterday and is traded at 7.62. In the meantime, EUR/TRY stands at 9.06-9.07.

International oil prices have fallen after U.S. brent oil stocks harshly increased. Brent crude fell to USD 66.78 per barrel this morning, while U.S. crude oil is just below USD 64.

Decline in yields of U.S. Treasury securities and USD’s weakening spot gold prices strive to recover after the 9-mont low hit. Spot gold has tested USD 1,719 however dropped again to USD 1,712.

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