What matters this morning

The number of daily COVID-19 cases have started to fall below 30,000 after the country shifted to the full lockdown on April 29, while it is still early to see the effects on the figures. 25,980 people have been infected, while 340 have lost their lives in the last 24 hours. The figure had reached nearly 62,000, while the death toll exceeded 360 on April 22.

As we start the week with this outlook, this morning the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for April, which is considered as one of the most critical data giving clue about the course of the economy in Q2. The index surged 1.68% on monthly basis and brought annual inflation to 17.14% from 16.19%. The annual inflation increased below the expectations of the economy world in April. Majority of economists said the annual inflation would exceed 18% both in April and May. Moreover, inflation will start to decline as of June, according to the general expectation. The Central Bank, meanwhile, increased the year-end inflation forecast by 2.8 points to 12.2% for this year in its recent inflation report.

Considering its primary impacts on the money market, USD/TRY appreciates at 8.29, while EUR/TRY is traded at 9.99. USD/TRY closed last week at 8.27. However, Institute of International Finance chief economist Robin Brooks has some ‘black news’ on this. “We’re changing our fair value for Turkish Lira to $/TRY 9.50 (black). We changed our fair value twice in 2020, due to the sharp widening in the current account deficit. This change is driven by a sharp deterioration in sentiment that’s taken place since March,” Brooks said in a tweet.

On the other hand, gold prices started to increase after palladium exceeded USD 3,000. Spot gold rose reached USD 1,776.

High course of the number of daily COVID-19 cases in India negatively affects recovery expectations in global oil demand as well as oil prices. Brent crude dropped to USD 66.67, while the U.S. crude oil declined to USD 62.20.


The Domestic Producer Price Index (D-PPI) rose by 35.17% on annual basis and surged 4.34% on monthly basis in April, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

The Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM) will announce export statistics with a press conference with the participation of Trade Minister Mehmet Mus. (11.30 am).


>> On the cover: This week the General Manager of TUPRAS tells us how the company is preparing its refinery for the future, where sustainability is a must. Founded as a state economic enterprise back in 1983, Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri, also known as TUPRAS, is the county’s biggest industrial company owned solely by Koc Holding since its privatization in 2006. Meeting a significant portion of the country’s energy needs since the first day it was founded, Tupras is strategically important for the country. You can read the article on pages 14 and 15.

>> Professor Ilter Turan: Genocide, politics, and the battle over historical memory. Pp. 10-11.

>> Report: ‘Made in Turkey’ Sputnik V will be available in a few months. P. 12.

>> Startup: Online publication company eyes American market. P. 16.

>> Q&A: Nezih Barut, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Abdi Ibrahim, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Pharmaceutical Manufacturers Association of Turkey (IEIS). P. 18

>> Diplomacy: Mutual position document published on modernization of CU. P. 22-23.

>> Zeynep Gurcanli: Being trapped and paying off. P.24.

>> Do not miss Time Out’s alternatives for the lockdown period.

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