What matters on Tuesday, October 18

The central government budget for 2023 has been calculated at TRY 4.46tr, according to Vice President Fuat Oktay. The budget deficit is estimated at TRY 659bn next year, corresponding to 3.5% of Turkey’s gross domestic product (GDP). Fuat Oktay said the budget revenue has been determined at TRY 3.81tr and TRY 145bn in support has been planned for the real sector for 2023. Central government budget investments consisting of allocation for capital transfer, capital expenditures, and investment accelerations have been set at TRY 383.1bn for the next year. Oktay also added that the planned subsidy burden for natural gas and electricity in the budget has been calculated at TRY 600bn for 2023. In the meantime, the legislative proposal for the 2023 central government budget was submitted to the Parliament’s Speaker’s Office on Monday. The presentation of the 2023 budget will be made to the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Commission by Vice President Fuat Oktay on Friday.

The share of foreign investors in Turkish capital markets has hit a historic low, according to daily DUNYA. The shares of foreigners in the equity and government debt security (GDS) markets have fallen to 31.67% and 0.83%, respectively. Foreign investors’ share in the equity and GDS markets saw 72% and exceeded 30% in 2007 when the figures hit a record high. Portfolio outflow, which totaled USD 5.7bn in 2020 and 2021, has reached USD 3.48bn as of October 7. Foreigners’ GDS outflow from Turkey has exceeded USD 2bn this year.

On the other hand, Turkey’s benchmark stock index ended yesterday at 3,847 points, hitting an all-time-high. Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index gained 6.08%, or 220.66 points from the previous close, with a daily trading volume of TRY 94.1bn. The banking index, which led the hike, rose by nearly 10% yesterday. The index has started to recover following the improvement process that was led by banks, according to analysts. Analysts said 3,700 points will be the support level and 3,870 points will be the resistance level for the BIST 100 index, in technical terms. Equity-based movements are expected to remain at the forefront of Borsa Istanbul as a result of balance sheet estimations. However, some analysts pointed to quite optimistic pricing and stated that there is a ‘bubble’ on the stock exchange.

On the foreign policy side, presidential spokesperson Ibrahim Kalin and US national security adviser Jake Sullivan discussed bilateral issues and global developments, including the Ukraine war, in a phone call yesterday. Kalin and Sullivan exchanged views on bilateral political and economic matters, defense and energy cooperation, developments in the Aegean and Mediterranean, and other regional issues, according to a statement by the Turkish presidency. Kalin also conveyed Turkey’s expectations regarding the “unconditional completion of the approval process of the F-16 procurement and modernization request by the US Congress,” the statement said.

Five more ships have left Ukrainian ports under the Istanbul grain export deal, according to a statement from the National Defense Ministry. The statement, which did not disclose the point of origin of the ships, said shipments from Ukrainian ports have continued as planned. Since the first ship left Ukraine under the Istanbul grain export deal on August 1, more than 345 ships with over 7.7 million tons of agricultural products have left ports.


The net international investment position (IIP) posted a USD 223.1bn deficit in August, according to the Central Bank.

The Central Bank will release the Residential Property Price Index for August (2.30 p.m.)


>> The central government’s budget balance posted a TRY 78.6bn deficit in September, according to the Treasury and Finance Ministry. The 9-month budget deficit fell from TRY 61.09bn to TRY 45.5bn in 2022, compared to the same period of the last year.

>> The burden of the FX-protected TRY deposit accounts (KKM) on the Treasury has reached TRY 88.4bn, according to Deputy Minister of Treasury and Finance Minister Cengiz Yavilioglu. He said the total amount in KKM amounted to TRY 1.43tr.

>> Around 100 Turkish series are shown at least in 150 countries, according to Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) Chairman Sekib Avdagic. Avdagic said exports of the Turkish series are expected to exceed USD 600m this year. He also pointed out a decline in revenues despite the hike in terms of sales volume.


>> People are struggling to access financing

Daily DUNYA Editorial Coordinator and Columnist Talip Aktaş examines the current decline in the ratio of personal loans and credit cards. 

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