What matters on Monday, November 7

Turkey has a busy economic data agenda this week. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will release the Construction Cost Index for September on Thursday. The index will likely continue to rise as producer price indices for September and October indicate this. The prices of petroleum derivatives, glass, cement, and non-metallic minerals, which account for a significant portion of construction costs, have skyrocketed.

One of the important and controversial pieces of data this week is the September balance of payments to be announced by the Central Bank on Friday. The current account deficit (CAD) will remain high, but tourism and thus service export revenues will increase due to the revision made at the end of October. This will apply to previous data as well, with a cumulative USD 23bn revision in net errors and omissions.

With the industrial production index for September, which will be announced by TurkStat on Friday morning, the third quarter data will be made clear. This will make it easier for us to predict what the growth rate of the economy will be because there is a very close relationship between growth and industrial production. In the first two quarters of the year, the industrial production index increased by more than 10%. The increase in the third quarter is three times faster than the previous two quarters. The September data released this week will paint a similar picture.

On the other hand, TurkStat will release labor force statistics for September on Thursday, while it will announce the retail sales and turnover indices for September on Friday.

Regarding internal affairs, the Cabinet is expected to convene under the presidency of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan today. The economy and foreign policy will be the priorities of the cabinet. Moreover, the Parliament’s Planning and Budget Committee will discuss the 2023 budget for the Trade Ministry. 

On Tuesday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will meet with Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson in Bestepe. The parties are expected to discuss Turkey-Sweden relations and Sweden’s NATO membership process. The Parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee will discuss the 2023 budget for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs same day. On the opposition side, DEVA Party Chairman Ali Babacan will visit Democrat Party (DP) Chairman Gultekin Uysal on Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee will discuss the 2023 budget for the Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate. DEVA Party Chairman Ali Babacan will visit Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu.

On Thursday, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will attend the Organization of Turkic States Summit to be held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan, on November 10-11. There will also be meetings for the development of economic and commercial relations between member countries. Domestically, the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee will discuss the 2023 budget for the Treasury and Finance Ministry. DEVA Party Leader Babacan will also visit IYI Party Chairwoman Meral Aksener on Thursday.

On Friday, the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee will discuss the Labor and Social Security 2023 budget.


No important data will be released in the country.


>> On the cover: British American Tobacco (BAT), which has for over half a century purchased oriental tobacco from Turkey, is now in its 20th year of production in the country. As a long-time investor in Turkey, BAT’s exports have reached USD 750m in the last four years with the help of its production expertise in the country, said Alper Yuce, BAT’s General Manager for the TCNC Cluster (Turkey, Caucasus, Northern Cyprus). USD 2bn in investments made in Turkey over 20 years have helped to boost these exports. You can read the details on pages 8-9.

>> Professor Ilter Turan addresses ‘Global election results and their effects on Turkey’ on page 10.

>> Q&A: Alexei Vladimirovich Yerkhov, Russian Ambassador to Ankara. P. 11.

>> Chief Economist Gunduz Findikcioglu: Killing them softly. You can read the details on pages 12-13.

>> Zeynep Gurcanli: “Normalization” comes to a halt. P. 14.


>> The casting lots process for the Social Housing projects starts today. The casting lots process for 22,057 houses in 12 cities will be completed within 10 days, according to Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change Minister Murat Kurum. The same process for 250,000 homes will be completed by May.

>> Turkish automotive exports rose by 1.8% to USD 2.65bn in October, year-over-year, according to the Uludag Automotive Industry Exporters’ Association (OIB).

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