What matters on Friday, November 4

The Consumer Price Index rose by 3.54% while annual inflation reached 85.51% in October in line with market expectations, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). The annual inflation, which broke another record, hit a 24-year high. The market expected the monthly inflation to increase by 3.6% and annual inflation to hit 85.6% in October. The domestic producer price index, meanwhile, surged by 7.83% monthly and reached 151.5% annually last month.

The Istanbul Wage Earners Cost of Living Index (WECLI) prepared by the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce (ITO) jumped 3.96% monthly and 108.77% annually in October while the Inflation Research Group (ENAG) calculated monthly inflation at 7.18% and annual inflation at 185.34% for October.

Economists expect annual inflation to hit a new high of just below 90% this month but start to decline with the base effect as of December. The Central Bank stated in the last inflation report of the year that inflation will decline rapidly after November. The bank’s year-end inflation forecast is 65.2% for 2022. Thus, inflation estimations by the managers of the economy and the market are narrowing. 

Turkey’s benchmark stock index ended yesterday at another all-time high of 4,105.46 points. Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index rose 0.82% or 33.59 points from Wednesday’s close of 4,071.87 points. The index also saw an intraday record of 4,116.49 points. The market value of the BIST 100 was around TRY 3.3tr at close, with a trading volume of TRY 84bn. The global equity markets have had a negative course, while the domestic market has positively differentiated following Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s statements, according to analysts. They said 3,940-4,000 points will be the support level and 4,120 points will be the resistance level for the BIST 100 index, in technical terms.

The application period for land and offices within the scope of the Social Housing Project will be extended to November 15, according to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

On the foreign policy side, Turkey’s support to Ukraine has reduced some of the effects of brutal war, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a joint news conference with Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu in Istanbul. “Turkey is a highly valued NATO ally and making important contributions to our shared security,” he said. Stoltenberg hailed Turkey for negotiating safe passage for Ukrainian grain through the Black Sea, easing the global food crisis, saying that implementation of the grain deal demonstrates the important role Turkey plays in the conflict in Ukraine. For his part, Cavusoglu said that the Black Sea grain export deal needs to be renewed in 20 days and affirmed Turkey’s continued efforts to ensure that the deal is implemented uninterrupted.


The Central Bank will release the Real Effective Exchange Rate for October (2.30 p.m.).


>> Residents’ FX deposit accounts dropped by USD 2.87bn in the week ending on October 28, compared to the previous week, according to the parity-adjusted data from the Central Bank.

>> The Central Bank’s international net reserves rose by USD 1.88bn to USD 13.44bn in the week ending on October 28, compared to the previous week. The bank’s total reserves surged by USD 213m to USD 114.18bn in the same period.

>> Foreigners’ net equity and corporate bond outflow from Turkey reached USD 11.6m and USD 3.6m, respectively, while their government debt securities acquisitions totaled USD 13.8m in the week ending on October 28, according to the Central Bank.

>> The banking sector’s total loan volume surged by TRY 108.18bn from TRY 6.9tr to TRY 7.01tr while its total deposits climbed by TRY 114.74bn to TRY 8.43tr in the week ending on October 28, compared to the previous week, according to the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK).

>> The net profit of petrochemical company SASA Polyester jumped 469.2% to TRY 8bn in the first nine months of the year. The company’s net sales surged by 169.9% to TRY 24bn in the same period.

>> Koc Holding’s oil refinery subsidiary Tupras’ (TurkiyePetrol Rafinerileri AS) turnover totaled TRY 151bn in the third quarter of the year.

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