The Central Bank’s (CB) second inflation report of the year was announced with a presentation by CB Governor Sahap Kavcioglu. The CB revised the year-end inflation by 19.6 points from 23.2% to 42.8% for 2022, and by 4.7 points to 12.9% for 2023. The bank also predicted that inflation at the end of 2024 will hit 8.3%. The estimates were USD 102.2 and USD 93.9 for oil prices for the end of 2022 and 2023, respectively. Food inflation was also revised from 24.2% to 49.0% for 2022.
Kavcioglu said the CB estimates the inflation will start to decline after May. “Considering current positive developments, we project the inflation to remain below expectations. We’ll ensure permanent price stability as soon as possible,” Kavcioglu noted. Stressing that the liraization strategy is the fundamental element of the bank’s policy framework review, the CB Governor announced additional steps to raise the usage of TRY assets as a guarantee will be implemented soon. Discussing the required reserve regulation for commercial loans, Kavcioglu said they don’t want loans to be used at the foreign exchange or other places.
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan spoke over the phone with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin to discuss the prisoner exchange between Russia and the U.S. in Turkey and the latest developments regarding the Russia-Ukraine war, according to a statement from the Communications Directorate. President Vladimir Putin thanked Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for assistance in the prisoner swap of the U.S. Marine Trevor Reed and Russian pilot Konstantin Yaroshenko at an airport in Turkey on April 27 under the coordination and supervision of the Turkish National Intelligence Organization. During the call with Putin, Erdogan highlighted the significance of Turkey’s mediation in the swap in terms of symbolizing the importance the country attaches to peace, dialogue, and cooperation as well as to its role as mediator. Erdogan also reiterated that Turkey stood ready to help put an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine and to mediate the path towards peace. He further voiced the desire to restore lasting peace in the region as soon as possible by boosting the momentum achieved at the Istanbul talks.
Turkey’s benchmark stock index Borsa Istanbul fell 0.94% on Thursday to close at 2,428.42 points. Starting the day at 2,461.96 points, the index decreased 23.01 points from Wednesday’s close of 2,451.43.
DAILY AGENDA
Turkey’s exports surged by 19.8% to USD 22.7bn and imports climbed by 30.7% to USD 30.87bn in March, compared to the same month last year, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). The foreign trade deficit jumped 75.1% to USD 8.16bn in the same period.
Services Producer Price Index (S-PPI) soared 80.62% in March year-over-year, according to TurkStat. The S-PPI increased by 5.44% on a monthly basis.
Tourism revenues jumped 122.4% to USD 5.45bn in the first quarter (Q1) of this year, as compared to Q1 2021, according to TurkStat.
Total FX assets of the banking sector increased by 9.0% to USD 344.5bn in Q4 2021, compared to the end of 2020, according to the Central Bank. Banks’ total cross border claims rose by 23.2% on immediate borrower basis in the same period.
The Culture and Tourism Ministry will release the inbound and outbound tourism figures for March (11.00 am).
The Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) will release the banking sector figures for March (2.00 pm).
The Central Bank will release monthly money and banking statistics for March (2.30 pm).
Meanwhile…
>> Residents’ FX deposit accounts dropped by USD 712.3m to USD 216bn in the week ending on April 22, compared to the previous week, according to the Central Bank.
>> The total amount in FX-protected TRY deposit accounts rose from TRY 756.6bn to TRY 783.03bn in the week ending on April 22, compared to the previous week, according to the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK).
>> Foreign investors’ net equity, government debt securities (GDS), and corporate bond outflow from Turkey totaled USD 52.1m, USD 22.2m, and USD 0.4m respectively, in the week ending on April 22, according to the Central Bank.
>> The Central Bank’s international net reserves declined by USD 1.96bn from USD 17.16bn in the week ending on April 22, compared to the previous week. The bank’s total reserves decreased by USD 3.38bn from USD 112.29bn to USD 108.91bn in the same period.
>> The Capital Markets Board of Turkey (SPK) has approved the initial public offering of the textile company Sun Tekstil Sanayi ve Ticaret AS.
>> Koc Holding’s banking subsidiary Yapi Kredi has decided to fully acquire the German Bankhaus J. Faisst oHG, which has a banking license, for EUR 9m in order to carry out banking operations in Germany, according to a statement from Yapi Kredi made to the Public Disclosure Platform (KAP).
>> Some 2,256 new coronavirus cases and 15 deaths due to COVID-19 were reported in the last 24 hours by the Health Ministry.
