Year-end inflation to see 16.2%: OVP

The annual inflation, which climbed to 19.25% in August from 18.95% in July, is projected to hit 16.2% by the end of this year, according to the country’s medium-term economic program (OVP) published in the Official Gazette.

The economy is projected to expand 9% this year and grow a further 5% in 2022.

The government is aiming for growth of 5.5% in 2023 and 2024, according to the three-year program, while the average gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate target is 5.3%.

The country’s GDP jumped 21.7% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2021, the highest annual growth rate since 1999, according to official data released last week.

Commenting on the program, Treasury and Finance Minister Lutfi Elvan said on Twitter: “We will further strengthen macroeconomic stability for durable growth led by the private sector.”

It is expected to fall to 9.8% by the end of 2022, according to the OVP, while the year-end targets for 2023 and 2024 are 8% and 7.6%, respectively.

The current account deficit to GDP ratio is projected to be 2.2% next year, further narrowing to 1.5% in 2023 and 1% in 2024.

The GDP per capita is expected to surpass USD 11,000 by 2024, according to the program. The figure will be USD 9,947 in 2022, USD 10,703 in 2023, and USD 11,465 in 2024.

The government is aiming for the GDP to exceed USD 850bn in 2022, before hitting USD 975bn in 2023 and topping USD 1tr in 2024.

GDP with current prices is projected to be around USD 801bn this year, while it stood at USD 717bn in 2020, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute.

The USD/TRY will be around 8.30 by the end of this year and increase to 9.27 in 2022, 9.77 in 2023, and 10.26 in 2024, according to the OVP.

The country’s exports target is USD 230.9bn for 2022 and grows to USD 255bn by 2024.

The budget deficit, which has widened due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic, is projected to increase in the coming few years.

It is expected to be TRY 230bn (USD 27.7bn) this year, with a target of TRY 278.4bn (USD 30bn) for 2022, TRY 290.2bn (USD 29.7bn) in 2023, and TRY 294bn (USD 28.7bn) in 2024.

The unemployment rate in the country, which stood at 10.6% in June, will hit 12.6% by the end of this year, according to the program’s estimates.

The government aims to bring it down to 12% next year, 11.4% in 2023, and 10.9% in 2024.​​​​​​​

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