The map prepared to show COVID-19 cases by provinces turning red day by day, indicating the risk is increasing. Two weeks after the release of the map, today there will be an evaluation by the presidential cabinet, which is expected to meet at 16:00. The main agenda item of the meeting will be the fight against coronavirus, the measures taken so far, the updated risk map and whether new restrictions will be taken, as some segments of the society expect.
Today has another importance for us. TR Monitor is now online at www.trmonitor.net. Publishing its 201st issue this week, TR Monitor exclusively focuses on Turkish economy, finance and business world independently under Nasil Bir Ekonomi Medya group, the publisher of daily DUNYA. Keeping its finger on the pulse of key economic and financial developments in Turkey with news and analyze pieces, TR Monitor will also reach a global audience that follow Turkish economy via its website.
Looking at the lira? Last week, USD/TRY dropped below 7.50 after it headed towards 7.80. Technically USD/TRY below 7.60 is expected to strengthen the tendency of USD to move in favor of TRY. If USD/TRY sees below 7.50, USD/TRY can test below 7.40. However, the downward trend is expected be more limited compared to the previous months, according to analysts. Some of the think that fluctuation between 7.20-7.50 will be acceptable. Morgan Stanley analysts estimate the USD/TRY to fall to around 6.80 in February. They also forecast that USD/TRY will be balanced at 7.75 even if the Central Bank will increase the interest rate between 75 to 100 base points. “In case of an interest increase below the expectations, TRY assets will maintain weak course and retest the November levels,” says a report by the bank.
The interest decision to be taken by the Central Bank at the Monetary Policy Committee’s (PPK) meeting on March 18, can also fluctuate foreign exchange rates. By the way, there is no concrete consensus about the interest decision. Some institutions expect a 50 to 100 base point increase, while others don’t anticipate an increase at all. That’s why, we have to wait for 3 more days.
Considering USD/TRY’s current status, it started the week with a horizontal course. USD/TRY stands at 7.56, while EUR/TRY is traded at 9.04- 9.05. On the other hand, spot gold prices stand at USD 1,723, while brent crude reached USD 69,70 with a slight increase.
DAILY AGENDA
The Ministry of Treasury will announce the Central Government’s budget balance figures for February. Central Bank’s budget posted a deficit of TRY 24.2bn in January, while budget revenue reached TRY 89.6bn and budget expenditures saw TRY 113.8bn.
Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) released Producer Price Index of Agricultural Products (Agriculture-PPI) and house sales for February. Accordingly, Agriculture-PPI increased by 21.32% in February, compared to the same month of the previous year and house sales dropped by 31.6% to 81,222 in this period.
