What matters this morning

The economy world and markets have started to expect a change in the Central Bank’s discourse and direction with the release of Medium-Term Program, in which forecasts surpasses the bank’s estimations. While this change is expected to be stated at the Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting to be held on September 23, the Central Bank Governor said at the German-Turkish Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s meeting.

Kavcioglu emphasized that they believe increase in inflation will be temporary and they will pay more attention to the core inflation. He also said they will direct the monetary policy in accordance with inflation, which they believe tend to decrease in the last quarter. This discourse change was perceived by the economy world and markets as an early interest rate cut, which can be even lowered at September 23 PPK meeting. USD/TRY saw 8.48 after Kavicoglu’s speech.

The Coronavirus Scientific Advisory Board also convened virtually yesterday. Health Minister Fahrettin Koca said those who received two doses of BioNTech vaccines will need a booster shot 5-6 months after they got the second dose. He also added that 6 million people in the country will need booster shot. “People who have received three shots account for less than 2% of overall coronavirus cases,” he noted in a written statement.

COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 related deaths don’t fall in the country. The number of daily coronavirus cases reached 23,914 while the death toll saw 262 in the last 24 hours. Turkey rose to the 7th place among 192 states with the highest number of COVID-19 cases by over 6.5 million in total, according to the Coronavirus Resource Center of John Hopkins. The Mu variant of COVID-19 has been detected in at least two people in the country this week.

Looking at the money markets, foreign exchange rates continue to fluctuate and remain at 2-week high. USD/TRY hits 8.50, while EUR/TRY is traded at 10.06.

Gold prices declined and approach to its lowest level in the last two weeks with the impact of upward trend in USD. Spot gold, which hit 2-week low at USD 1,781 per ounce yesterday, hovers around USD 1,791 per ounce this morning.

Oil prices started to increase with production declined in the Gulf of Mexico following Hurricane Ida. Brent crude slightly rose to USD 72.49 per barrel this morning.


The Central Bank and the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) will release weekly money and banking statistics (2.30 pm).

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