USD/TRY broke another annual record after hitting 17.59 yesterday with the adverse impact of macroeconomic uncertainties, high inflation, the hike in Turkey’s CDS, and the upward trend of the USD index. Thus, TRY has devaluated by over 31.5% against USD since the beginning of the year. USD/TRY is traded at 17.54 this morning.
The investment consultancy and portfolio management company Info Yatirim emphasizes the resistance level of 17.60 in USD/TRY in its latest report. “Concerns over recession are increasing with high inflation after the growth data pointed out a contraction in the U.S. Thus, the discourse of stagflation has started to emerge. While the USD index has tested 109.3 due to increasing demand following the outflow from risky assets, currencies of developing countries devaluate. TRY has differentiated negatively with the impact of domestic dynamics since the beginning of the year,” the report read
Turkey’s benchmark stock index Borsa Istanbul, meanwhile, jumped 2.07% to end yesterday at 2,501.96 points. After starting the day at 2,449.40 points, BIST 100 index gained 50.69 points from the previous close of 2,451.27 points. The total market value of the BIST 100 was around TRY 2tr by market close, with a daily trading volume of TRY 31.7bn. The financial statements of companies in the U.S. and the downward revisions of their forecasts for the next year have brought forth a recession fear again, while the BIST 100 Index has a positive course, according to analysts. They said 2,440 points will be the support level and 2,520 points will be the resistance level for the BIST 100 index, in technical terms.
The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) released the results of Turkey’s Second Top 500 Industrial Enterprises (ISO Second Top 500) survey, which is also considered the scorecard of Turkey’s SMEs. Production-based sales in the country’s second top 500 manufacturing companies surged by 77.5% to TRY 339.2bn in 2021, compared to the previous year. While the financial expenses of these firms exceeded TRY 20bn, their deteriorating debt structure was the most remarkable takeaway from the survey. The ceramic company Ege Seramik topped the list with a production-based sales revenue of TRY 980.1m.
On the foreign policy side, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan convened with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the 7th trilateral summit meeting in the Astana format between Turkey, Iran, and Russia, hosted by Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. The parties discussed the latest developments in Syria and the fight against terror groups, particularly the PKK and its Syrian offshoot the YPG/PKK, and Daesh. “The approach of the Russian delegation in the last Istanbul meetings was very positive. The outcome of the talks will have a positive impact on the whole world,” Erdogan told his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin. Putin thanked Erdogan for Turkey’s mediation efforts on food and grain issues, adding that the process for the Ukrainian grain exports has moved forward with Ankara’s mediation. The Russian President said issues about the exports of Ukrainian grain from Black Sea ports have not all yet been resolved, but that progress is a good sign.
DAILY AGENDA
The Consumer Confidence Index surged by 7.4% from 63.4 to 68.0 in July, compared to the previous month, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
Non-domestic producer price index (ND-PPI) jumped 110.66% in June, compared to the same month last year, according to TurkStat. The ND-PPI rose by 9.18% on a monthly basis.
The net international investment position (NIIP) posted a USD 226.1bn deficit in May, according to the Central Bank.
The Central Bank will release weekly monetary and banking statistics (2.30 p.m.).
