What matters on Tuesday, August 9

Although Turkey’s 5-year CDS fell from 900 to some 730, pricing with values above this level reduce the external debt rollover ratios. The roll-over rate in the banking system has hit 90%. The public and private sectors have a nearly USD 23bn external debt retirement and loan repayment for August-December, according to daily DUNYA. Experts say rolling over 80% of this amount may create a USD 5-6bn finance deficit that would cause upward pressure on foreign exchange (FX) rates.

Turkey’s benchmark stock index ended with gains yesterday to finish at an all-time high closing of 2,795.06 points. Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 Index earned 44.56 points, or 1.62% from Friday’s close of 2,750.49 points, with a daily trading volume of TRY 46.8bn. The equity market continues to protect its upward trend after the profitability of companies has generally exceeded expectations, according to analysts. They said Borsa Istanbul positively differentiates as the borrowing cost of the bond auction held by the Treasury yesterday fell to 17.51% and the credit risk premium continues to have a downward trend. Analysts also noted that 2,750 points and 2,720 points will be the support level and 2,820 points will be the resistance level for the BIST 100 index, in technical terms.

The state-owned Petroleum Pipeline Corporation (BOTAS) is in talks for a EUR 300m syndicated loan to buy liquified natural gas from the Azerbaijan-based energy company SOCAR. The 366-day loan is expected to be EURIBOR (Euro Interbank Offering Rate) + 575-650 basis points, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg.

Two more ships, carrying corn and soybeans, departed from Ukrainian Black Sea ports yesterday, Reuters said, taking the total to ten since the first ship sailed last week under a deal with Russia to unblock Ukrainian grain exports. The United Nations and Turkey brokered the agreement last month after warnings that the halt in grain shipments caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could lead to severe food shortages and even outbreaks of famine in parts of the world.


The Treasury and Finance Ministry will reissue a 2-year (616 days) semiannually fixed coupon bond and a 6-year (2,226 days) semiannually floating rate note.


>> The Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) Turkey Manufacturing Export Climate Index dropped by 1.8 points to the threshold of 50 points in July, compared to the previous month.

>> Turkish airports hosted more than 96.6 million air passengers, including transit passengers, in January-July, according to the State Airports Authority General Directorate. The 7-month figure surged 68.6% year-on-year; the data showed. Some 44.1 million passengers took domestic flights from January to July, while 52.4 million went on international flights.

>> The net profit of Isbank amounted to TRY 23bn in the first half of the year. The bank contributed TRY 876bn to the economy in the same period.


>> A one-year success story

Our Eco Analysis Columnist Alaattin Aktas examines the macroeconomic developments in the lead up to September 23, the anniversary of the Central Bank’s (CB) policy rate cut.

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