What matters on Thursday, October 20

The markets are focused on the Central Bank’s policy rate decision. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) will convene under the presidency of the bank’s Governor Sahap Kavcioglu today. The policy rate is expected to be cut from 12% to 11% this month, by 100 basis points to 10% next month, and by another 100 basis points to 9% in December in line with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s statements, according to surveyed analysts. For instance, 13 of 20 economists who participated in the Reuters poll, expect the interest rate to be reduced by 1% to 11% today. Despite the hike in inflation and aggressive policy rate hikes by central banks globally, the PPK cut the rate in August and September. The PPK’s interest rate decision will be announced at 2.00 PM.

Turkey’s benchmark stock index ended yesterday at 3,880.34 points, hitting another all-time high. Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index gained 1.01%, or 38.78 points from the previous close, with a daily trading volume of TRY 84.7bn. The equity and sector-based movements may increase with the financial statement period, starting with defense company ASELSAN, according to analysts. They said 3,800 points will be the support level and 3,950 points will be the resistance level for the BIST 100 index, in technical terms.

All negligences of the coal mine explosion in Bartin will be addressed, according to President and AK Party Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Speaking at AK Party’s parliamentary group meeting, President Erdogan said Turkey had a fruitful tourism season that produced USD 40bn in revenue and 50 million tourists. “It’s understood that we may keep the budget deficit below the target of 3.5% despite the pandemic and war,” Erdogan noted. Touching on the minimum wage Erdogan added: “We are determined to compensate the welfare loss of especially our fixed income citizens due to high inflation. We’ll continue to keep our compensation word by taking further steps in the new year.”

Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati announced on Twitter that new regulations and promotions will be implemented in the private pension system in the upcoming period without details. Nebati also noted that the number of participants in BES has reached 14.3 million and the fund size has totaled TRY 362bn as of October 17.


The non-domestic producer price index jumped 117.04% in September, compared to the same month last year, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). The index increased by 0.67% on a monthly basis.

The Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision (2.00 p.m.).

The Central Bank will release weekly monetary and banking statistics (2.30 p.m.).


>> The worry arising from inflation in the world has doubled the level recorded at the beginning of the year, according to a survey prepared by the France-based international research and consultancy firm Ipsos. Poland, Argentina, Turkey, the UK, and Hungary are the top five countries, respectively, in terms of the level of inflation worry. The rate of inflation worry in Poland hit 67% while it remained at 56% in Turkey.

>> The Turkish ship and yacht sector’s exports totaled USD 999m in the first nine months of the year, according to daily DUNYA.

>> R&D expenditures rose by TRY 26.96bn to TRY 81.92bn in 2021, compared to the previous year, according to TurkStat.

>> Banks’ net profit is expected to increase by nearly 17% in the third quarter (Q3), compared to the previous quarter, according to daily DUNYA. Their net profit is estimated to jump by over 400% in Q3 on an annual basis. The net profit of non-financial sectors is expected to surge by more than 150% in Q3, year-over-year.


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