What matters on Thursday, November 3

Russia announced that it is returning to the Black Sea grain corridor deal reached this July. “Thanks to the participation of the UN and the support of Turkey, we managed to get the necessary written guarantees from Ukraine regarding the grain deal,” the Russian Defense Ministry said in a statement. Russia considers sufficient the guarantees received from Ukraine and is resuming implementation of the agreement, the statement read. Russian President Vladimir Putin said Moscow would not hinder grain supplies from Ukraine to Turkey in the future due to Ankara’s “neutrality,” capabilities of its grain processing industry, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s efforts aimed at ensuring the interests of the poorest countries. Putin also warned that Moscow reserves the right to withdraw from the Ukraine grain deal if Kyiv violates guarantees that the humanitarian corridor will not be used for military purposes.

The Central Bank is responding to demand-driven cost pressures, which they say are beyond the control of economic policies, with a holistic approach, including rate cuts and macroprudential measures, according to Central Bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu. Speaking at a meeting held by the Anatolian Tigers Businessmen Association (ASKON), Sahap Kavcioglu said the government is supporting production by bringing loan interest rates close to the policy rate and distributing loans to contribute to the stability. “Our liraization strategy, which we are implementing for the Turkish economy and will defeat inflation permanently, will be applied more densely in the coming period,” Kavcioglu added. “All loans used by investments, exports, and SMEs are out of the frame of the macroprudential measures we’ve taken. All loans provided within this frame, which encourage economic activity, will be supported by the Central Bank,” he noted.

Turkey’s benchmark stock index ended yesterday at a record high of 4,071.87 points, up 0.42% or 17.20 points from the previous close. During the day, the index’s lowest value was 4,040.11, points, while its daily high was 4,098.56. The total market value of the BIST 100 was around TRY 3.2tr, with a daily trading volume of TRY 77bn. Global equity markets fluctuated before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision of a 75-basis points interest rate. Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s statements will have critical importance in terms of the course of pricing, according to analysts. They said 3,940 points will be the support level in case of a decline and 4,100 points will be the resistance level for the BIST 100 index, in technical terms.


The annual inflation reached 85.51% and the monthly inflation rose by 3.54% in October, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

The domestic producer price index (D-PPI) jumped 157.69% in October, compared to the same month last year, according to TurkStat. The D-PPI rose by 7.83% on a monthly basis.


>> The 10-month foreign trade deficit exceeded USD 91bn this year, according to preliminary data from the Trade Ministry. Exports rose by 15.4% to USD 209.4bn and imports jumped 39.5% to USD 300.5bn in January-October, compared to the same month last year. Exports increased by 2.8% to USD 21.3bn while imports surged by 31.9% to USD 29.3bn in October, year-over-year.

>> The automotive and light commercial vehicle (LCV) market grew by 14.9% in October, compared to the same month last year, according to the Automotive Distributors Association (ODD). The market contracted by 4.7% in January-October, compared to the same period of the previous year.

>> The net profit of Polisan Holding jumped 259% to TRY 448m in January-September, compared to the same period last year.

>> The turnover of Sabanci Holding’s tire subsidiary, Brisa, totaled TRY 9.57bn in January-September. The company’s net profit amounted to TRY 1.48bn in the same period.


>> Budget deficit in Q4 to be ninefold higher than in Q1-Q3

The central government’s budget deficit in the last quarter will be ninefold higher than the first three quarters, according to our Critical Angle Columnist Ismet Ozkul.

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