What matters on Thursday, November 24

The markets are focused on the Central Bank’s policy rate decision. The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) will convene under the presidency of the bank’s Governor Sahap Kavcioglu today. The policy rate is expected to decrease to 9% at today’s meeting, according to the statement made after the last PPK meeting on October 20: “…In this context, the committee decided to reduce the policy rate by 150 basis points. The board will end the interest rate cut cycle…after a similar step to be taken in the following meeting.”

Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) Chairman Erdal Bahcivan pointed out that the problem in accessing financing continues with the contraction in domestic and foreign demand. “While our operating conditions have become difficult, our financing conditions arent recovering,” Erdal Bahcivan said, stressing that loans have slowed despite the decrease in interest rates. “The management of the financial system with continuously changing, varied implementations create stress in the business world and adversely affects the daily financial life,” Bahcivan added.

Turkey has taken comprehensive steps to ensure price stability and raise people’s purchasing power, according to Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati. Speaking at an event in Istanbul, Nureddin Nebati said the government has taken all kinds of measures to eliminate problems caused by inflation and inflation will decline soon. Touching on foreign exchange (FX) rates, Nebati stated that they expect less volatility in the coming period. He also noted that the share of FX deposit accounts dropped by nearly 20 points to 50.6% with the contribution of the FX-protected TRY deposit accounts (KKM), while the average maturity of TRY deposits doubled with KKM. “This situation has significantly improved the maturity mismatch which is among the most important risks in the sector. The real value of TRY has increased since the beginning of the year. FX rate volatility has declined as well,” Nebati highlighted.

Turkey’s benchmark stock index ended yesterday at a new all-time high daily close of 4,854.16 points, up 1.54%. Starting the day at over 4,800 points for the first time in its history, Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index earned 73.42 points from the previous close yesterday. The index also saw an intraday record of 4,864.81 points, while its lowest value was 4,727.83 on Wednesday. The total market value of the BIST 100 was around TRY 3.9tr by market close, with a daily trading volume of TRY 120bn. Global equity markets, including Borsa Istanbul, have been on a positive course per expectations that the Federal Reserve will soften its ‘hawkish’ monetary policy stance, according to analysts. They said 4,700-4,750 points will be the support level and 4,900 points will be the resistance level for the BIST 100 index, in technical terms.


The Real Sector Confidence Index dropped by 2.4 points to 97.9 in November, month-over-month, according to the Central Bank.

The Capacity Utilization Rate declined by 1.0 points to 75.9% in November, compared to the previous month, according to the Central Bank.

The seasonally adjusted confidence index decreased by 1.0% in the services sector and increased by 2.1% in the retail trade industry and by 1.2% in the construction sector in November, compared to the previous month, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

The Central Bank will announce the interest rate decision (2.00 p.m.).

The Central Bank will release weekly monetary and banking statistics (2.30 p.m.).


>> Turkey launched an investigation into Samuel Bankman-Fried, Former CEO of the cryptocurrency exchange FTX, over fraud allegations, the Treasury and Finance Ministry announced yesterday. Turkish authorities also seized the assets of Bankman-Fried and other affiliates during the investigation. Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati said the probe was launched by the country’s Financial Crimes Investigation Board (MASAK). FTX, which was the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency exchange by daily trading volume, filed for bankruptcy earlier this month due to liquidity problems. 

>> The asset size of the non-banking finance industry, including companies operating in factoring, financial leasing, financing, and asset management sectors, totaled TRY 307.3bn while their transaction volume reached TRY 357.8bn in January-September, according to the Association of Financial Institutions (FKB). Their equity size hit TRY 48.2bn and the number of customers saw 5.9 million in the same period.

>> Turkey’s major appliance exports remained unchanged at 2.47 million units in October, year-over-year, according to the White Goods Manufacturers’ Association of Turkey (TURKBESD). The sector’s domestic sales rose by 9% to 650,952 units in the same period, the highest level recorded this year.


>> Real sector debt accelerates faster than its equities

Critical Angle Columnist Ismet Ozkul examines the 12-year change in companies’ equity, debt, revenue, profit, and financing expenditures from 2009-2022, according to the Central Bank’s company balance sheet data.

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