USD/TRY continued to increase once it exceeded the 16.00 limit. TRY devaluated by 10% against USD in May. Market experts estimate USD/TRY to move towards 16.50-17.00. International investment bank HSBC has revised its USD/TRY forecast from 16.50 to 17.50 for the end of 2022. The year-end estimation from domestic market specialists has already reached 17.57, according to the Central Bank’s Survey of Market Participants.
Turkey’s benchmark stock index was up by 1.81%, ending yesterday at 2,418.10 points. Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 Index gained 43.10 points from its previous close of 2,375.00 points. Daily trading volume amounted to TRY 34.4bn. Although the global risk appetite is low and the BIST 100 Index is declining intermittently along with global markets, it shows a positive performance, according to Murat Barisik, Research Director of Ata Yatirim. Barisik says concerns over growth increased awhen economic data remained below expectations and China’s zero-COVID policies continued last week. Withdrawls will be limited in the BIST 100 Index as long as it remains above 2,360 points, he says. “In case the resistance level of 2,400 points that the index tested but didn’t exceed,is broken, its momentum will accelerate,” Barisik said, stressing that volatility may increase in the coming days due to internal and external developments. Ata Yatirim suggests adding companies with solid fundamentals, stories, and exports to your investment portfolio. Barisik named TAV Airport, Birlesik Magazalar AS (BIM), Arcelik, Erdemir, Migros, Turk Telekom and Sisecam as examples.
Apart from developments in the foreign exchange rates and the BIST 100 Index, the market will focus on the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting today. Analysts predict the interest will remain steady at 14% despite the deterioration in inflation and the surge in FX rates. They also expect that ‘liraization, expansionary policies, and external-driven risks’ will come to the fore in the PPK statement.
DAILY AGENDA
The economic confidence index increased by 2.1% to 96.7 points in May, compared to the previous month, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
The PPK will announce the interest rate decision (2.00 p.m.).
The Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) and the Central Bank will release weekly monetary and banking statistics (2.30 p.m.).
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