What matters on Monday, September 26

The cabinet meeting not held last week, due to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the United States to attend the UN General Assembly, expected to be held today. The economy, foreign policy, and the fight against terrorism will be on the agenda.

The market will focus on economic data this week. The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will announce international trade in services data for 2021 on Wednesday.

On Thursday, TurkStat will release the economic confidence index for September. The index, consisting of five sub-indices, such as the consumer confidence index, real sector confidence index, and indices in services, retail trade, and construction sectors, increased by 1% to 94.3 points in August. Moreover, the Central Bank will release the summary of the Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting held on September 22, when the policy rate was cut by 100 basis points to 12%. The Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK), meanwhile, will announce the sector statistics for August. The net profit of the banking sector reached TRY 38.72bn while the 7-month net profit hit TRY 207.9bn in July. BDDK and the Central Bank will also release the weekly banking and monetary statistics on Thursday.

On Friday, TurkStat will announce foreign trade figures and services producer price index for August. The Treasury and Finance Ministry will release the gross and net external debt stocks, the net public debt stock, and the Treasury-guaranteed external debt stock data for the second quarter. It will also announce the auction schedule for the next three months. The Central Bank, meanwhile, will release monthly monetary and banking statistics. The U.S.-based Standards and Poor (S&P) is expected to announce Turkey’s rating.

On the political side, Republican People’s Party (CHP) Chairman Kemal Kilicdaroglu will go on a leader’s tour from today, before the second round of talks for the 6-party opposition table, hosted by the CHP, starts on October 2nd.

The AK Party’s Extended Provincial Presidents will meet tomorrow, under the chairmanship of President Tayyip Erdogan, with the participation of provincial party heads, provincial women’s branches, provincial youth branches, metropolitan mayors, provincial mayors, and provincial council presidents.

Parliamentary Speaker Mustafa Sentop will hold a press conference on Friday in honor of the new legislative year, which will begin on October 1.


The Real Sector Confidence Index dropped by 2.2 points to 99.9 points in September, compared to the previous month, according to the Central Bank.

The seasonally adjusted confidence index rose by 1.7% in the services sector, 2.7% in the retail trade sector and 2.1% in the construction sector in September, as compared to August, according to TurkStat.

The Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) in the manufacturing industry increased by 0.7 points to 77.4% in September, month-over-month, according to the Central Bank.


>> On the cover: The investment bank Pragma’s CEO, Deger Sahbaz is on our cover this week. Sahbaz says there is stable foreign investor interest in exporting industrial companies in Turkey. “In particular, strategic investors plan to both capture a large market share and benefit from the production capacities in Turkey by investing in Turkish companies,” he said  You can read the details on pages 8-9.

>> Professor Ilter Turan addresses ‘Lessons from the decline of Byzantium’ on page 10.

>> Q&A: Burcu Unuvar, Chief Economist and Head of Economic Research at the Industrial Development Bank of Turkey (TSKB). P. 11.

>> Chief Economist Gunduz Findikcioglu: Dilemma: Charismatic leaders and democracy. Pp. 12-13.

>> Our Foreign Policy Columnist Zeynep Gurcanli analyses ‘The moment Russia fell from power’ on page 14.

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