We are starting the new week with a busy economic data agenda; the pieces of data announced on Thursday and Friday will be especially critical and interesting. The first is the PMI, which will be released on Thursday morning. The PMI has been below 50 for eight months, indicating a contraction. But what is more important is that the indicator dropped to its lowest level of the year in October. In other words, the PMI indicated a contraction in the industry and the scale of this contraction is increasing. If the November data released this week is weaker than the October number, 46.4, the expectations for fourth-quarter growth will also weaken.
On Friday morning, the Trade Ministry will announce provisional foreign trade data for November. An increase in exports, the pace of which has slowed down in recent months, has been accompanied by imports that are stubbornly increasing by 30-40%. What makes this week’s data important is the possibility of a decline in exports, which have increased every month for the last two years, mostly by double digits. Although there is no clear indicator of how the data might turn out, we can see that foreign demand has weakened. Increased TRY-based costs could not be reflected on prices as the exchange rate remained almost constant and this is making it difficult to sell goods abroad.
Regarding other economic data this week, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will announce the Economic Confidence Index for November and the Foreign Trade Statistics for October on Tuesday. TurkStat will also release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers for the third quarter and the Services Producer Price Index for October on Wednesday.
In terms of internal affairs, the Cabinet will convene under the presidency of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to discuss the economy and the fight against terrorism today. New measures to prevent excessive price increases in grocery store chains will also be discussed.
Today, the six-party opposition roundtable will also hold the Parliamentary System Constitutional Amendment Proposal Publicity Meeting at 10.30 AM in Ankara. The roundtable will hold its ninth meeting at the Democrat Party headquarters at 14.00 to discuss the roadmap for the strengthened parliamentary system and the work done by different commissions.
Central Bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu will make a presentation to the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee on Friday. Kavcioglu will answer questions from deputies, including those regarding the cost of FX-protected deposit accounts to the Central Bank, which has been the subject of discussion for a while.
No important data will be released in the country.
IN OUR MAGAZINE THIS WEEK:
>> On the cover: The apiculture company BEE’O Propolis aims to increase its number of export countries to over 100 in the next five years and reach an annual turnover of USD 20m, according to Food Engineer (MSc) Dr. Asli Elif Tanugur Samanci, Founding Partner of BEE’O Propolis. “We previously exported to 14 countries. Now we can export to 30 countries, we’ve added nearly 15 new countries to our portfolio since last year,” Samanci said. You can read the details on pages 8-9.
>> Professor Ilter Turan: Are there really winds of change? P. 10.
>> Continuously changing communiqués create stress in the business world, according to Erdal Bahcivan, Chairman of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO). You can read the details on page 11.
>> Our Chief Economist Gunduz Findikcioglu addresses if we should worry about financial fragility on pages 12-13.
>> Zeynep Gurcanli: On transformation. P. 14.
>> The 2023 central government budget, which had been discussed at the Parliament’s Planning and Budget Commission for over a month, has been approved at TRY 4.46tr in total, according to daily EKONOMI.
>> Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati tweeted that he convened with Saudi Arabian Trade Minister Majid bin Abdullah Al Qasabi in Istanbul to discuss economic, commercial, and financial cooperation between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. “We agreed with the minister to further develop our cooperation in these areas,” he added.