We’ll kick off the week with a promising new development. As of today, our daily newspaper will be published under the name ‘Nasil Bir Ekonomi’. There will be no change in the name or content of our English language publication, TR MONITOR. As a valued subscriber, we will continue to make sure you’re receiving all the data and context you need to understand the ups, downs, and sometimes sideways moves of the economic and sectoral landscape in Turkey and around the world, as we always have.
Important economic data will be announced every day this week. We will start the week with October tourism data today. The number of visitors, which was 4 million in October 2021, is likely to be around 6 million this year.
The November consumer confidence index, which will be announced on Tuesday morning, is a critical indicator not only for the demand side of the economy but also for the upcoming elections. The index, which fell to a low of 63.4 points in June, has increased for four months beginning in July and reached 76.2 points in October. It is uncertain whether we will see the continuation of the rise in November data this week and December data next month, but it will not be a sharp decline. The increase in wages in January will have a strong positive effect on the index.
Another important piece of data this week is the real sector confidence index announced by the Central Bank. Industrial sector confidence, one of the leading indicators of growth, has turned downwards in recent months. Real sector confidence, which is in line with the PMI, exports, and industrial production index, will remain weak in the short term due to ongoing weakness in foreign demand and the recent slowdown in domestic demand.
Finally, the interest rate decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) will be announced on Thursday afternoon. The policy rate is expected to decrease to 9% at this week’s meeting, according to a statement made after the last PPK meeting on October 20: “…In this context, the committee decided to reduce the policy rate by 150 basis points. The board will end the interest rate cut cycle after a similar step is taken in the following meeting.”
In terms of internal affairs, the Cabinet will convene under the presidency of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Among other things, the cabinet is expected to discuss the economy, foreign policy, the fight against terrorism, and the constitutional amendment proposal. In the last week of the 2023 budget negotiations, which have been ongoing for almost a month in the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Commission, the budget of the Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure will also be discussed.
On Tuesday, the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Commission will discuss the budget for the Ministry of National Defense.
The budget for the Ministry of Industry and Technology will be on the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee’s agenda on Wednesday.
On Thursday, the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee will discuss the budget for the Ministry of Health.
The Presidential budget and articles of the budget law proposal will be discussed and voted on by the Parliamentary Planning and Budget Committee on Friday.
The Agricultural Input Price Index (Agriculture-IPI) jumped 138.15% in September, compared to the same month last year, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). The index increased by 2.90% on a monthly basis.
The non-domestic producer price index (ND-PPI) soared 103.79% in October, year-over-year, according to TurkStat. The index rose by 1.34% on a monthly basis.
The Culture and Tourism Ministry will release tourism statistics for October (11.00 a.m.).
IN OUR MAGAZINE THIS WEEK:
>> On the cover: Armando Guastella of Bain & Company, who led the first-ever ESG CEO Pulse Survey in Turkey, is on our cover this week. ESG is becoming a strategic lever for CEOs, who recognize its massive potential as a value generator, said Guastella, adding that companies outperforming in ESG ratings see their EBITDA performing 10-15% higher than in other companies. You can read the details on pages 8-9.
>> Q&A: Gamze Akguney, General Manager of UNLU Menkul Degerler. P. 11.
>> Our Chief Economist Gunduz Findikcioglu addresses ‘Markets and businessmen’ on pages 12-13.
>> Our Foreign Policy Columnist Zeynep Gurcanli answers why Turkey wasn’t invited to the Ukraine meeting in Bali on page 14.
>> The international credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Turkey’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B’ with a Negative Outlook. “Turkey’s ‘B’ rating reflects weak external finances, growing economic distortions due to increasingly interventionist and unconventional policies as well as political and geopolitical risks,” the institution’s statement read.
>> The Ministry of Industry and Technology prepared 1,300 investment incentive certificates in September. The value of the certified projects totals TRY 45.1bn. These investments are estimated to employ 29,872 people.
>> The number of cruise ships jumped over 17-fold from 53 to 907 in January-October, year-over-year, according to Transport and Infrastructure Minister Adil Karaismailoglu.
>> President Tayyip Erdogan shook hands with his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sisi on the sidelines of the World Cup in Qatar yesterday, a photo from Turkey’s presidency showed. Reuters said President Erdogan briefly met, shook hands, and talked to Sisi and other leaders, including Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and King Abdullah of Jordan. There was no immediate comment from Egypt’s presidency.