This week, we have a busy agenda in terms of economic data. On Tuesday morning, GDP data for the first quarter of the year will be announced. Completing last year with 11% growth, the Turkish economy is expected to continue to grow in 2022, albeit at a slower pace.
The preliminary indicators show that the economy will grow by 6-7% in the first quarter of the year (Q1) in line with positive developments in employment, industrial production, and exports, according to Treasury and Finance Minister Nureddin Nebati. Moreover, Central Bank Governor Sahap Kavcioglu previously stated that Turkey will become one of the rare economies with a growth of nearly 7% in Q1. In the last Medium-Term Program, 5% was targeted for annual growth, but current expectations vary between 2-4% for the year in general.
The Trade Ministry will announce provisional foreign trade data for May on Thursday morning. The rapid increase in both exports and imports continues. We will likely see that a similar trend will continue in May. However, it should not be forgotten that global growth is slowly decelerating, and this will be reflected in foreign trade over time. Even though foreign trade data seems lively in USD terms due to the rise in commodity prices, foreign trade is slowing down in terms of quantity. This will also be felt in the Turkish data in the coming months.
April inflation was 69.97% in CPI and 121.8% in PPI. The May data will be released this Friday. We will see both indices continue to rise. In May, TRY lost more than 10% of its value. This will also be reflected in the inflation data in the coming months, and if it stays at these levels, it will probably raise prices by 3-4 points. The exchange rate effect will add fuel to the fire of inflation, which is already high and rising. The potential for global support for the recent price increases in food prices must have drawn your attention. Grain prices are expected to continue to rise in the coming months, though they have eased a little in recent weeks. As long as the Russia-Ukraine War continues, it will not be possible to see a rapid decrease in prices in the short term.
The Parliament will start to discuss the legislative proposal for amendment of the Attorney’s act this week. It will also continue to discuss the legislative proposals on the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM) and the Exporters’ Associations and the amendment of some other laws.
The parliament’s public works, reconstruction, transport, and tourism commission will convene under the presidency of AK Party Konya Deputy Tahir Akyurek today to discuss the Environment Law, which includes regulations for mucilage and development, and a legislative proposal on amendment of a range of laws.
The parliament’s foreign affairs committee will meet on Tuesday to discuss eight legislative proposals to approve international agreements.
The parliament’s digital channels commission will convene on Wednesday to discuss the Press Law and the legislative proposal on the amendment of some laws as a subsidiary commission following a presentation by the Family and Social Services Ministry. The General Directorate of the Turkish Employment Agency (ISKUR) and representatives of the Union of Municipalities of Turkey (TBB) and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will be briefed on Wednesday on the parliament’s sub-commission working on equal opportunities for women and men.
President and AK Party Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdogan will address members of the AK Party at the party’s Parliamentary Group meeting on Wednesday at 11.45 AM.
In the meantime, the State-owned Enterprises Commission will continue audits while other political parties will organize group meetings in Parliament this week.
No important data will be released this morning.
IN OUR MAGAZINE THIS WEEK:
>> On the cover: Vidyodan, Turkey’s first live-streaming e-marketplace platform, has aggressive initial growth plans in the country, which will be followed by global steps, according to Vidyodan CEO Yusuf Mert Yilmaz. He said a USD 20m investment will be made over two years to achieve these goals. You can read the details on pages 8-9.
>> Professor Ilter Turan: An apparent window of opportunity may turn difficult. P. 10.
>> Q&A: Murat Bilgic, CEO of the Industrial Development Bank of Turkey (TSKB). P. 11.
>> Chief Economist Gunduz Findikcioglu: A long, hot summer. You can read the details on pages 12-13.
>> Our Foreign Policy Columnist Zeynep Gurcanli analyses ‘the NATO veto, Syria, and beyond’ on page 14.