What matters on Monday, February 20

The Ankara Chamber of Industry (ASO), which has rapidly mobilized to meet the permanent housing demand in the disaster-hit regions, is launching a campaign for industrialists who lost some of their staff and whose employees have migrated to other provinces due to the earthquake. As part of the campaign, which will be started under the name of ‘temporary remigration’, ASO will determine the personnel need of manufacturers who have suffered from quakes and meet their needs through Ankara-based industrialists temporarily, according to ASO Chairman Seyit Ardic. He told daily EKONOMI that the monthly salaries of employees to be sent from Ankara to quake-hit provinces will be paid by manufacturers, who will deploy them in those regions. “The labor force should remain in the region. That’s why we’ll build the ASO life center near the Organized Industrial Zones,” Ardic added.

71,052 independent units in 20,662 buildings collapsed in 10 cities during the two strong quakes two weeks ago, according to a statement from the Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change Ministry. As part of its damage assessment studies, a total of 384,545 independent units at 105,794 buildings have been determined as heavily damaged and collapsed and should immediately be demolished. The figure is expected to exceed 535,000 independent units when the studies are completed. Over TRY 843bn, or USD 44.8bn should be spent to reconstruct 535,000 independent units excluding temporary shelter expenditures, infrastructure investments, land share, and expropriation costs, according to the calculation by daily EKONOMI. The figure corresponds to 30% of the 2023 budget deficit, and doubles TRY 454bn, which has been allocated for investments to be made by the country’s all public institutions in the budget. Moreover, it also equals 18.8% of the TRY 4.47tr budget expenditure item.

The direct loss of the earthquake can reach from USD 29bn up to USD 45bn, or 5.2% of the country’s GDP, according to a report by the U.S.-based investment bank Morgan Stanley. The bank estimated the residential cost, which has already reached USD 24bn, to hit USD 38bn. The bank also said the indirect loss would remain at 0.5% of the GDP for this year, as quake-hit regions host fewer industrial activities than Istanbul and surrounding that were hit by the 1999 Earthquake. 

Regarding the economic data agenda of the week, the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) will announce the interest rate decision this week. There is a possibility of a 100-basis points rate cut at the PPK meeting to be held on Thursday.

On Tuesday, the Central Bank will release the Financial Services Confidence Index for February, and the Turkish Statistical Insitute (TurkStat) will announce the Agricultural Input Price Index for December. The Central Bank will also release the Real Sector Confidence Index and Capacity Utilization Rate for February while TurkStat will announce the confidence indices in the retail, services, and construction industries for February on Wednesday. On Thursday, the Central Bank will release the weekly monetary and banking statistics. The Union of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges of Turkey (TOBB), meanwhile, will announce the liquidated and established company figures for January on Friday morning.


The net international investment position posted a USD 279.1bn deficit in December, according to the Central Bank.

The consumer confidence index was up by 4.3% from 79.1 to 82.5 in February, month-over-month, according to TurkStat.

The non-domestic producer price index jumped 50.98% in January, year-over-year, according to TurkStat. The index rose by 4.0% on a monthly basis.


>> On the cover: The business world mobilizes to repair the occupational and economic damage caused by the quakes. The Organized Industrial Zones Supreme Organization (OSBUK) has matched 23 organized industrial zones in the five most affected provinces with OIZs in other cities for interrupted production. You can read the details on pages 8-9.

>> Professor Ulter Turan: Let us wait and see. Page 10.

>> Q&A: Professor Necip Cakir, Lecturer at Bahcesehir University. You can read the details on page 11.

>> Our Chief Economist Gunduz Findikcioglu addresses the ‘Agents of destiny’ on pages 12-13.

>> Our Foreign Policy Columnist Zeynep Gurcanli examines if the earthquake opens a diplomatic channel on page 14.


>> As of February 19, at least 41,020 people have been killed by two strong earthquakes that jolted southern Türkiye on February 6, according to the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD). It also said the quakes were followed by over 6,210 aftershocks.

>> Turkey’s benchmark stock index ended the week at 5,026.83 points on Friday, up 0.36% from the previous close. Starting the day at 4,937.65 points, Borsa Istanbul’s BIST 100 index earned 18.25 points compared to Thursday’s close of 5,008.58 points. The total market value of BIST 100 was around TRY 4.03tr by market close, with a daily trading volume of TRY 63.5bn.

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