We will start the week with the optimism from the Fed meeting. PMI data prepared by the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) in cooperation with Markit Economics was announced today. The PMI index fell to 46.9 in July.
The PMI index is in a moderate downward trend after seeing 54.1 in August 2021. It dropped to 48.1 in March, April, May, and June of this year, one after the other. Below 50 means contraction.
One reason for the decline in the index is the slowdown in exports, and another reason is the slowdown in the domestic market. Do not be misled by the fact that the export data is increasing in USD terms. Much of this increase (as in other countries) is due to the rise in commodity prices. Our sales in terms of quantity are not much different from last year.
The PMIs of the countries we export to are also slowing down. The ISO export climate index also confirms this. The export climate index shows the weighted averages of the PMI indices of our target markets, that is, the industrial production performances of the countries to which we export. The slowdown in this indicates that our exports will show a lower performance.
Two more important pieces of domestic data will be announced this week. July provisional foreign trade data and July inflation. Inflation will take a more moderate monthly value compared to recent months due to seasonal effects and the decline in commodity prices.
This week, the Parliament will convene to discuss the violence against healthcare employees and the legislative proposal for this issue submitted by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) to the Parliament. CHP applied to Parliament with 120 signatures to call it to an extraordinary meeting.
The ISO PMI Index dropped from 48.1 to 46.9 in July, compared to the previous month.
IN OUR MAGAZINE THIS WEEK:
>> On the cover: London-based full-service media agency Capital Sports Media (CSM) has become the fastest growing sports marketing agency in the Turkish market in two years. Working with world-class sports organizations and helping brands engage with a highly desired and targeted sporting audience through qualified channels, CSM aims to create new revenue models for sports clubs. “The best clubs in Turkey can generate more than USD 10m in sponsorship and advertising revenues,” said Aydil Ercoklu, General Manager of Capital Sports Media. You can read more on pages 8-9.
>> Professor Ilter Turan: Who is at fault? P. 10.
>>Q&A: Atilla Benli, President of the Insurance Association of Turkey (TSB). P. 11.
>> Chief Economist Gunduz Findikcioglu: Another perfect storm. Pp. 12-13.
>> Our Foreign Policy Columnist Zeynep Gurcanli analyses whose victory the grain corridor is on page 14.
>> The monthly food expenditure required for a healthy, balanced, and sufficient nutrition of a family consisting of four people (hunger limit) amounted to TRY 6,840, according to a survey conducted by the Confederation of Turkish Trade Unions (TURK-IS). In addition to food expenditures, the amount needed to secure the necessities of life, such as housing (electricity, water, heating, etc.), clothing, transportation, education, health, etc. (poverty line) totaled TRY 22,280. The monthly cost of living for a single employee rose to TRY 8,930.
>> The average purchase price of hazelnuts set by the Turkish Grain Board (TMO) has been raised to TRY 54 per kilogram, according to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
>> The interest rate implemented by banks for TRY deposits rose by 62 basis points to 17.72%, for USD deposits increased by 52 basis points to 2.63%, and EUR deposits surged by 43 basis points to 1.39% in the week ending on July 22, compared to the previous week, according to the Central Bank.
>> The interest rate charged for TRY commercial loans jumped 236 basis points to 29.74% in the week ending on July 22, compared to the previous week, according to the Central Bank.