To what extent does the misery index influence voters’ choices?


Group interests identified with self-interest are the primary determinant of typical voter behavior in line with the literature. Although political interests come to the fore sometimes, economic interests are mainly determinant. Electors vote for the party which will provide the highest benefit for themselves or for the segment of society they identify with. Traditional voter behaviors are mainly shaped in this direction in Turkey. The cost of living (inflation) and unemployment are the two economic problems affecting people’s interests. The total of these factors is called the Misery Index. The hike in it generally causes unsatisfaction with the current government and the change of power until the election period, while the decline in it creates the preference for the continuation of the support for the ruling party. The index has a significant relationship with elections in Turkey. Although the ruling party hasn’t changed since the elections in November 2022, the change in inflation and unemployment affected the votes of the government in the elections. The close vote rates between the government and its alliances and the opposition bloc will be a test for the extent to which the results of the May 14 elections will develop in line with the historical process.

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