While the Borsa Istanbul BIST100 index continues its uninterrupted rise and records, investor outflows from the stock market continue despite two new IPOs.
Especially after the appointment of the new Central Bank Governor Fatih Karahan and the first inflation report presentation of the year, the rise in the stock market accelerated. Demand collection was also held for two new public offerings last week. Despite all these positive developments, the number of investors in the stock market continues to decline.
Last week, 42,898 investors exited the stock market and the number of investors dropped to 7 million 200,436 as of February 9. Experts emphasized that the negative price movements and rising interest rates in the last IPOs of last year drove short-term small investors out of the stock market, and that shares were consolidated in the accounts of permanent stock market investors rather than short-term small investors.
The Capital Markets Board’s refusal to issue new public offering permits from December 7, 2023 to January 31, 2024 brought significant changes in the distribution of investors in the stock market. According to Central Registry Agency (CRA) data, the number of investors with a portfolio size between TRY 0-10,000 decreased by 606 thousand 121 people in one month from December 2023 to January 2024, and their portfolio size decreased by TRY 252 million.
In one month, the number of investors in the smallest portfolio segment dropped by 14.2 percent. On the other hand, both the number of investors and portfolio sizes increased in all other portfolio segments. The number of investors with a portfolio size of over TRY 10 million increased by 15.53 percent, while the portfolio size increased by 11.63 percent. From the end of December 2023 to the end of January 2024, the BIST100 index increased by 13.74 percent in TRY terms in one month.
13,900 investors exit BIST100 during IPO demand collection
Following this change in January, the number of equity investors continued to decline in February. According to MKK’s daily data, 76 thousand 337 more investors left the stock market from the end of January until the close of trading on Friday, February 9. As of February 9, the number of investors decreased to 7 million 200 thousand 436, while the number of investors was 7 million 276 thousand 773 on January 31. Unlike in January, demand collection was held last week for two new public offerings. In previous years, the number of investors increased by up to 500 thousand per day during the demand collection periods of new public offerings, but this effect was not observed during the demand collections on February 6-7-8-9. On the contrary, Pacific Technology and Bor Şeker lost 13,889 investors during the demand collection days.
Those who don’t know the stock market exit
Another expert, on the other hand, reminded that the IPO record was broken last year and that these IPO shares exhibited continuous ceiling-level movements in the stock market, and stated that people opened accounts even for their 6-month-old children in order to get more shares from the IPO. The expert stated that there were exits from the stock market because the IPOs at the end of last year did not go as well as before in the fiat and then there were days when the IPO permission was not issued, and emphasized that small investors who wanted to earn fast started to exit the stock market by saying that the stock market did not earn, considering that the stock market went horizontally in the last quarter of last year. According to the same expert, the continuation of this decline is not a situation that affects the stock market, noting that “These exits were not people who knew the stock market. Real investors continue to stay in the stock market. Since the interest rate hike process is over, the stock market investor who believes in the potential of the stock market to go up continues on the way.”
A good IPO will turn it around
Tacirler Investment Strategist Serhan Yenigun stated that there has always been and continues to be a real investor base and said, “The fictitious accounts opened for IPOs are probably closing. Because the old irrational movements in IPOs don’t seem to exist anymore. But if there is a good IPO, a large and reasonably discounted IPO (such as the production side of Enerjisa), I think we will see serious interest again.”