THERE IS NO ONE-TO-ONE correspondence between the rate of interest and the exchange rate. Still, more often than not the rate of interest is the only variable that can control the exchange rate. Thus, it is possible to defend the currency, both under a peg and under the float, up to a certain threshold beyond...
The election is over; what will come up next?
TOBB makes its A-Team
The CAD is big and its financing is bad!
To what extent does the misery index influence voters’ choices?
AI and beyond
Budget deficit risk of around 7% of GDP
Tourism revenues rise higher than the number of tourists
Need for anchor
Patents with technological advances in the automotive ecosystem
Let’s estimate FX rates…
Inflation soared while the policy rate was lowered
Famous banks’ election expectations
Energy and gold don’t explain the CAD
Levent Kafkasli becomes GM of GAP Insaat
Global tension: Is it decision time for Turkey?
When you don’t learn from a mistake from 30 years ago
UNDP sends containers to the quake-hit region
Annualized foreign trade deficit tripled in 1.5 years
What do central banks do? Or do they?
AS I PEN THIS, London interest rates on overnight s aps for TRY hit 1400, the highest in a decade. That may have limited the first impact on the level of the TRY/USD exchange rate. Because foreign banks demand TRY so they can sell and turn to dollars – and run – TRY scarcity has...
Fixed income, Fed, and CBRT
THE SPREAD BETWEEN US 2-year and 10-year notes was 0.37 exactly a year ago. Now it stands at 1.47. This kind of normalization entails a strong expectation of genuine recovery, especially after the Biden bill passed. It also underlines a reflation scenario. With fiscal packages amounting to USD 5tn, nearing a quarter of the U.S....
Low quality and below par growth
WE HAVE BEEN WAITING FOR Godot for a entire decade, if not two or more. On the face of it there is a strong and fluid dynamic that drives the business world. Here and there old town folk who were busy trading olives now produce olive oil machines, for instance. More people export, even SMEs....
Cards, debts, and capital formation
THE 1996 Nobel Laureate William Vickrey once wrote that nobody should be afraid of debt. He basically meant public debt, of course. Yet in his opinion, issuing debt was sort of akin to issuing capital. Capital-ism, I won’t hesitate to add, is better called debtism, if this view is correct. Nevertheless, we aren’t talking about...
The foreign reserves issue
LAST NOVEMBER, when the Central Bank Governor was replaced and the Treasury and Finance minister resigned, the backstage in Ankara was shaken by the reserve issue and allegations that President Erdogan had only just been made aware of negative reserves. Three months have passed and until last week, there had been no objections to the...