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The foreign reserves issue

LAST NOVEMBER, when the Central Bank Governor was replaced and the Treasury and Finance minister resigned, the backstage in Ankara was shaken by the reserve issue and allegations that President Erdogan had only just been made aware of negative reserves. Three months have passed and until last week, there had been no objections to the...

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What positive changes are happening in TurkStat?

If the public was asked which institution they trust the least, without a doubt the answer would be the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). If they were then asked which of TurkStat’s data they find least reliable, it would be inflation. The public’s perception is that TurkStat calculates the inflation rate and when it turns out...

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In Eco Analysis

2020 is over in terms of inflation, but its effects remain

THERE is a correlation, albeit not one-toone, between currency increases and price increases, particularly in producer prices. The change in producer prices is also reflected in consumer prices after a while, on a moderate scale. It should be underlined that the reflection from producer prices to consumer prices is limited due to the “structure of...

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In Eco Analysis

People hanker for the past financial conditions

THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE index announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) stayed unchanged in December at 80.1. This means: “If the index is 100, we would know whether the consumer has an optimistic or pessimistic expectation regarding the economy because 100 is the optimistic-pessimistic limit. However, the consumer confidence index is below 100, showing that...

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Interest rate up, sales down!

HOUSE sales and secondhand transfers have decreased to levels that are considered normal. We neither see the lows we saw in April and May nor the highs due to advantageous loans. The interest rate on housing loans increased by nearly 2 points in the first week of December compared to the November average. That’s why...

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Industrial production rose and fell in July

I F YOU think there’s a contradiction in the headline, you are right, but only at first glance. In fact, there’s nothing wrong with the title because industrial production both increased and decreased in July compared to the same period of the previous year. But how is this possible? Once again we face a dilemma:...

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In Eco Analysis

Foreigners earn USD 416m on forex

FOREIGNERS sold a total of USD 5.5bn worth of shares in the first eight months of the year. I highlighted this before: If foreigners are selling their assets, it is a signal of two economic expectations. Firstly, it implies that the stock prices might fall further. Secondly, it signals that the foreign exchange could appreciate...

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In Eco Analysis

This isn’t a rate hike?

T H E C E N T R A L B A N K’ S policy rate, which the bank decided to use to regulate the market, declaring it the real rate, still stands at 8.25%. But the weighted average cost of funding has increased to double-digits after five and a half months. The Central...

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In Eco Analysis

Ordinary questions for natural gas discovery

I ’ M not an energy expert. That’s why I’m not going to dive into the technical debate regarding the 320 billion cubic meters of natural gas reserves discovered in the Black Sea. But still, after the first wave of excitement, joy, and simultaneous disdain, it’s important to note some of the questions raised by...

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In Eco Analysis

Housing construction increases, sales decline

MUNICIPALITIES issued licenses for the construction of 212,000 houses during the first half of the year. It’s more accurate to say: “Those who will build houses received licenses.” There’s been a rapid increase on a quarterly basis. A total of 81,000 licenses in the first quarter, 131,000 in the second. Also, there’s been a strong...