How should the change in industrial production be read?


Different evaluations are made based on the same index when industrial production data is released. Changes, compared to the previous month and year, show a difference in the real production level. Production remained 20.9% lower in July, as compared to June, and rose by 3.1% as compared to July 2021. To understand the performance of industrial production (IP), the calculation should be made by adjusting the calendar effect (CA). Accordingly, the monthly decrease was 7.6% in July. Adjusting the seasonal effect (SA) alongside the calendar effect is another calculation. Thus, the decline in production was 6.2% in July. All these rates are right based on where and for which purpose they are used. TurkStat uses the CA index to measure the change in industrial production. Accordingly, the hike was 2.4% in July. TurkStat uses the SA and CA index for the monthly movements. IP fell by 6.2% in July as compared to June. So, the course of IP is not favorable if we adjust for the calendar effect and add the seasonal effect. TurkStat releases the IP data based on 2015. The production level, which was 100 in 2015, rose to 137 in January-July 2022. So, we could only increase the IP by 37% in seven years and the average annual rate of increase is 4.6%.

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