GDP figures may deviate from OVP estimations

The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for 2021 is forecasted at 9% in the 2022-2024 Medium-Term Economic Program (OVP). Considering the Industrial Production Index in September, GDP growth may exceed 9% for 2021. The Industrial Production Index rose by nearly 9% in September, though the surge slowed. The increase in Q3 was 9% in the raw index, and 10.8% in the calendar-adjusted index. GDP will grow at nearly the same level in Q3, according to these figures. If Turkey grows by 8% in Q3, just below industrial production, annual GDP growth reach 10% even if there is modest growth in Q4.

GDP growth stood at just 1.8% in 2020. The 2-year rate will be 12% if Turkey achieves 10% growth in 2021, and the average growth rate will be 5.8% for 2020-21. Although industrial production significantly rose with the base effect, this production was expensive. The Domestic Producer Price Index increase year-over-year is near 50%. This will eventually reflect on the Consumer Price Index. GDP was estimated at USD 801bn for 2021, and GDP per capita was supposed to be USD 9,489 for the population of 84.4 million, according to the OVP. The average of USD/TRY from the new year to September was 8.03, while the average overall for 2021 has actually been near 8.30.

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