BY ALAATTIN AKTAS March was a relieving month in terms of the current account balance. The current account deficit (CAD), which hit USD 5.6bn in March 2022, decreased to USD 4.5bn in March this year. However, the single-month realization doesn’t matter that much. The deficit in the first quarter and the last year are well...
Author: Alaattin Aktas (Alaattin Aktas)
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Let’s estimate FX rates…
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS Let’s estimate the FX rates in line with the alliance which will win the election on May 14… The lira is highly devaluated in line with the CPI (Consumer Price Index)-indexed Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER). It is neither appreciated nor appreciated in line with the D-PPI (Domestic Producer Price)-indexed REER. Such...
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Inflation soared while the policy rate was lowered
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The Central Bank’s (CB) policy rate and inflation had a parallel course from the beginning of 2011 to September 2021. However, there were periods when inflation showed itself. For instance, the dismissal process of unmanageable CB governors. The policy rate was cut when obeyer governors were appointed. The different long-term targets seemed...
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Energy and gold don’t explain the CAD
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS First, it’s noteworthy to remark on a revision. The current account deficit (CAD) was USD 9.84bn in January in the first statement, and the figure was the highest monthly deficit in the history of the republic. Now, we see that the CAD is even higher. The revision, which was made while the...
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Annualized foreign trade deficit tripled in 1.5 years
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The situation in foreign trade data for March seems to be not bad. Exports increased by 4.4%, while the increase in imports remained at 4.2% In March, compared to the same month of the previous year, according to preliminary data announced by the Ministry of Trade. However, imports still increased faster than...
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Capacity usage down contrary to real sector confidence
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The Capacity Utilization Rate (CUR) in the manufacturing industry nearly hit a 3-year low in March, according to the Central Bank. This isn’t a monthly movement. There is a significant tendency. The CUR has generally declined since the end of 2021. I am talking about 15 months. The seasonally-adjusted CUR fell to...
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A possible reverse capital control ahead
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS On May 14, one leg of the election will be completed and the parliamentary election will be over. Maybe the new president will be determined that day or the elector will vote for the second tour on May 28. But even if only the parliamentary election ends on May 14, the picture...
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The highest monthly CAD in the history of the republic
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The current account deficit (CAD) broke the record in the republic’s history in January and reached USD 9.84bn. The previous record was broken in March 2011 when the current account balance posted a USD 9.4bn deficit. The annualized CAD, meanwhile, hit USD 51.7bn, according to the Central Bank. Who knows how many...
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Dollar lost its savings instrument edge
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The policy to hold the hike in foreign exchange (FX) rates, therefore curbing inflation, has frustrated those who relied on the dollar as a saving instrument. The dollar completely lost its savings instrument feature in the last six months. USD/TRY, which hit 17.99 in August 2022, averaged 18.82 in February 2023. USD/TRY...
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Share of compensation of employees in the GVA hits a 25-year low
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The share of compensation of employees in the Gross Value Added (GVA) THE was down from 30.1% to 26.5% in 2022, compared to the previous year, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). The share of compensation of employees in the GVA has never been as low as 2022 over the past...