Turkey’s EU adventure has been going on for 60 years. The most important date in this process is of course October 3, 2005, when the EU decided to start full membership talks with Turkey. Together with Croatia, the EU gave Turkey a deadline of 2013 for full membership. Turkey did not fare very well in the full membership harmonization talks.
The 2010 constitutional amendment that destroyed the independence of the judiciary was the first major rift between the parties. Soon after, in 2011, Turkey became indirectly involved in the war in Syria, and the country was flooded with refugees. The EU, fearing the influx of refugees, played nice with Turkey, albeit for a short time. However, it did not accept the regime change in Turkey after the 2017 constitutional amendment that put the judiciary and the legislature under the executive. Full membership became a dream in 2011 when Turkey took sides in Syria. Since then, Turkey has made moves that show that it has given up on liberal democracy while rapidly heading towards the Middle East pit. In a sense, Turkey shoot itself in the foot in the full membership process.
While Turkey has deviated from the EU path, other countries have taken important steps towards full membership. Albania and Bosnia-Herzegovina are among the countries that will soon fly the EU flag. The four remaining countries from the former Yugoslavia are almost certain to become members within five years. Last week, the EU made an unexpected move. Despite Hungary’s abstention, the EU decided to open accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova and granted Georgia candidate status. The day I wrote this article, celebrations had already started in Georgia.
Since 2010, Turkey has been in a constant tussle with the EU. As a result, less than five years after the date of full membership was set, the perspectives of countries such as the Netherlands, Germany and Greece, which had ardently supported Turkey, have changed. Turkey has been neither economically nor politically rational in its confrontation with the EU.
A clear indicator of this is the developments in foreign trade volume. Although Turkey has posted a surplus in foreign trade with the EU in recent years and exports the most to the EU, it has fallen into the trap of callousness. It ignored the developments in foreign trade in its favor. Instead, it has aligned its policies in the international arena with China and Russia, with whom it has been running a trade deficit.
There are many reasons for the current situation with the EU. But one of the most important reasons is that Turkey has not understood the EU philosophy. Competent bureaucrats and politicians who knew about the EU were ignored. In international relations, the childish enthusiasm for Neo-Ottomanism was emphasized. As a result, neither the EU governments nor the AKP governments looked favorably on this process, even if tacitly.
Turkey preferred being a Third World country to EU membership. It kept going in reverse gear.
