The Central Bank has kept the policy rate unchanged at 19%. Inflation risk has been emphasized while ‘tight stance’ and ‘decisively’ expressions has been included in the statement.
The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) has kept the interest rate steady at 19% in line with expectations following the critical June meeting.
Here are the evaluations of the PPK statement released after the meeting:
The worldwide speeding up of vaccination rollout, especially in developed countries, supports the global economic recovery. Nonetheless, the increasing trend of commodity prices, supply constraints in some sectors and the rise in transportation costs have led to producer and consumer price increases internationally. The effects of the rising global inflation and inflation expectations on international financial markets remain significant.
Domestic economic activity is strong. While domestic demand has slightly decelerated in the second quarter due to pandemic restrictions and the tightening in financial conditions, external demand remains strong. The acceleration of domestic vaccination rollout facilitates the recovery in services and tourism sectors, which have been adversely affected by the pandemic, and leads to a more balanced composition in economic activity. Loan growth exhibits a mild course owing to the implemented monetary tightening.
The course and composition of loans are monitored for macroeconomic stability. Despite the rise in commodity prices, the strong upward trend in exports, the slowdown in credit growth, the significant fall in gold imports and the strong progress in the vaccination program stimulating tourism activities are expected to accelerate the ongoing improvement in the current account balance.
In addition to the recent import-price-based cost factors, demand conditions, supply constraints in some sectors, and high levels of inflation expectations continue to pose risks to the pricing behavior and inflation outlook.
On the other hand, the decelerating impact of the monetary tightening on credit and domestic demand has begun to be observed. Taking into account the high levels of inflation and inflation expectations, the current tight monetary policy stance will be maintained decisively until the significant fall in the April Inflation Report’s forecast path is achieved. Accordingly, the PPK has decided to keep the policy rate unchanged.
The Central Bank will continue to use decisively all available instruments in pursuit of the primary objective of price stability. The policy rate will continue to be determined at a level above inflation to maintain a strong disinflationary effect until strong indicators point to a permanent fall in inflation and the medium-term 5% target is reached.
The stability in the general price level will foster macroeconomic stability and financial stability positively through the fall in country risk premium, reversal in currency substitution, accumulation of foreign exchange reserves and perpetual decline in financing costs. This would create a viable foundation for investment, production and employment to continue growing in a healthy and sustainable way.
The Committee will continue to take its decisions in a transparent, predictable and data-driven framework.