The Turkish Central Bank (CBRT) will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday. The policy rate is expected to be raised by 250 basis points to 45 percent and kept at this level for a while.
The CBRT’s Monetary Policy Committee, which has raised the policy rate from 8.5 percent to 42.5 percent in 7 meetings since June, is expected to raise interest rates by another 250 basis points at this week’s meeting. The policy rate, which is expected to rise to 45 percent, is also expected to remain at this level for a while. Since June, 3400 basis points of interest rate hikes have been made. All 23 economists surveyed by Foreks expect a rate hike at this week’s meeting. According to the survey results, the highest estimate was 45.00 percent, while the lowest estimate was 44.00 percent. Of the 23 economists, 21 predicted a rate hike of 250 basis points and 2 predicted a rate hike of 150 basis points.
Year-end expectation 38.75 percent
In the January survey, the median interest rate forecast of 16 economists for the end of 2024 was 38.75 percent. The maximum expectation in year-end interest rate forecasts was 45.00 percent and the minimum expectation was 30.00 percent. In the Foreks survey in December 2023, the median forecast was 40.00 percent, and the forecast range was 50.00 percent to 25.50 percent.
First rate cut expected in the last quarter
According to Foreks’ survey, economists expect the first interest rate cut in the last quarter of 2024, in October. Of the 14 economists who responded to when the first interest rate cut will be, 6 predicted October, 2 predicted July, 2 predicted August, 1 predicted September, 1 predicted November, 1 predicted December, and 1 predicted the end of the 3rd quarter / beginning of the 4th quarter.
