In the Central Bank Market Participants Survey, the year-end inflation expectation decreased from 68.01 percent to 67.23 percent. The year-end dollar / TL expectation of the participants fell from 30.05 TL to 30.00 TL.
The rise in exchange rates continues on the last day of the week. While dollar prices reached its historical peak at 28.93 TRY, Euro prices increased its new record to 31.46 TRY, following the survey data on Friday.
The results of the CBRT November Survey of Market Participants are as follows:
“12-month-ahead CPI expectation was 43.94 percent in this survey period, while it was 45.28 percent in the previous survey period. 24-month-ahead CPI expectations were realized as 25.82 percent and 25.09 percent in the same survey periods, respectively.
In the November 2023 survey period, when the probability forecasts of the participants for the next 12 months are evaluated, it is predicted that the CPI will increase between 37.00 – 41.99 percent with a probability of 18.18 percent, between 42.00 – 46.99 percent with a probability of 58.61 percent, and between 47.00 – 51.99 percent with a probability of 15.80 percent.
According to the evaluation based on point estimates in the same survey period, 21.21 percent of the participants’ expectations were between 37.00 – 41.99 percent, 48.48 percent of the participants’ expectations were between 42.00 – 46.99 percent and 21.21 percent of the participants’ expectations were between 47.00 – 51.99 percent.
In the November 2023 survey period, when the probability forecasts of the participants for 24 months ahead are evaluated, it is predicted that the CPI will increase between 18.00 – 22.99 percent with 29.62 percent probability, between 23.00 – 27.99 percent with 36.70 percent probability and between 28.00 – 32.99 percent with 25.78 percent probability.
According to the evaluation based on point estimates in the same survey period, 30.00 percent of the participants’ expectations for CPI inflation 24 months ahead were between 18.00 – 22.99 percent, 36.67 percent were between 23.00 – 27.99 percent, and 25.00 percent were between 28.00 – 32.99 percent.
Policy rate expectation was 37.80 percent
Participants’ expectation for the current month-end overnight interest rate at the BIST Repo and Reverse Repo Market, which was 33.22 percent in the previous survey period, became 37.71 percent in this survey period. CBRT’s one-week repo auction interest rate expectation for the current month-end was realized as 37.80 percent in this survey period, while it was 33.68 percent in the previous survey period.
Year-end USD/TRY expectation 30
Participants’ year-end exchange rate expectation (USD/TRY) was 30.00 TRY in the current survey period, while it was 30.05 TRY in the previous survey period. The 12-month-ahead exchange rate expectation was realized as 39.62 TRY in the current survey period, while it was 38.64 TRY in the previous survey period.
Year-end growth expectation unchanged
Participants’ GDP growth expectation for 2023 was realized as 4.1 percent in the previous survey period and this survey period. The GDP growth expectation for 2024 was 3.3 percent, down from 3.4 percent in the previous survey period.
The November 2023 Market Participants Survey was answered by 69 participants, including representatives of the real and financial sectors, and the results were evaluated by aggregating the responses of the participants.”
