Expectations about the outcomes of the Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) meeting to be held on September 23 have started to appear. The PPK is expected keep the one-week-repo rate steady at 19%, according to Foreks survey. Out of 25 surveyed economists, 22 estimate that the interest rate will remain steady while three forecasted that the policy rate will be lowered by 100 basis points to 18%. Four out of 22 economists, who think that the interest rate will remain steady, said the first interest rate cut decision will be taken in October, while nine of them said it will happen in November. One economist stated that the policy rate will be lowered in December and two economists said it will happen in the fourth quarter. Finally, one surveyed economist highlighted that the bank would take such a decision in March 2022.
The median estimation of 21 economists surveyed about the year-end interest rate decision, stood at 18%. The lowest year-end interest rate decision was 16% while the highest policy rate decision reached 19%, according to Foreks survey.
Prior to the PPK meeting, the Central Bank raised required reserve ratio, which is applied for foreign exchange and precious stones deposit accounts by 200 basis points. The decision has been published in the Official Gazette this morning.
Looking at the money market with these developments, USD/TRY is traded at 8.45, while EUR/TRY reaches 9.98 with a slight increase this morning.
Spot gold exceeded its psychological threshold of USD 1,800 per ounce after the inflation figure for August was released yesterday in the U.S. The figure does not give a message about when the Federal Reserve starts to decrease asset purchase program. The yellow metal is traded at USD 1,803 this morning. On the other hand, oil prices rose by 0.72% to USD 74.13 per barrel.
DAILY AGENDA
The number of paid employees including manufacturing, construction and trade-services sectors rose by 10.9% to 12.3 million in July, compared to the same month of the previous year, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
The Ministry of Treasury and Finance will announce the Central Government’s budget balance figures for August (11.00 am).
