As we approach to the weekend after a relatively busy agenda in terms of economic data, the markets are focused on Central Bank’s interest rate decision. The interest rate, which has been set as 19%, is expected to remain unchanged due to the upward risks in inflation, according to surveys.
The Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) is estimated to lower the interest rate most likely in the last quarter of the year. The projected interest rate cut will be lower than the past, according to economy circles. However, messages to be included in the PPK’s statement is important following President Erdogan’s comments on the interest rate. Because a possible interest rate cut will pave the way for new peaks in the foreign exchange rates and will trigger upward risks in inflation, economy circles think.
Prior to the Central Bank’s policy rate decision, TRY has appreciated. USD/TRY declined by 0.42% to 8.59, while EUR/TRY decreased by 0.31% to 10.10.
Oil prices, meanwhile, continues to have a steady course after concerns over oil supply increased as the U.S. has requested major oil producers to increase production. Brent crude is traded at USD 71.29 per barrel.
Gold prices also have a steady course after the slowdown in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for July, compared to the previous month. Spot gold slightly increased by 0.30% to USD 1,756 per ounce.
DAILY AGENDA
Retail sales volume with constant prices rose by 17.4%, while retail turnover with current prices surged by 40.9% in June, compared to the same month of the previous year, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).
The total turnover index including manufacturing, construction, trade and services industries rose by 63.1% in June, compared to the same month of the previous year, according to TurkStat. The index also increased by 9.5% on a monthly basis.
The Industrial Production Index surged by 23.9% in in June, compared to the same month of the previous year, according to TurkStat. The index also rose by 2.3% on a monthly basis.
The Central Bank and the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BDDK) will release weekly money and banking statistics (2.30 pm).
