We’ve started this week with the balance of payments data for March. According to the Central Bank, the current account balance posted a USD 5.55bn deficit in March. The 12-month rolling current account deficit (CAD) reached USD 24.22bn in this period. The new path, which began last autumn with the intention of high growth through low-interest rates, high exchange rates, low imports, high exports and low current account deficit, has not yielded the expected results so far and many indicators, especially inflation, have weakened. The current account deficit is one of them. We will have reached the full-year current account deficit target of USD 18.6bn made at the last Medium-Term Program in the first quarter, and we will close the year with a deficit twice that, with an optimistic forecast.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) will announce house sales for April on Tuesday morning. In the first quarter of this year, 320,000 houses were sold. Although sales are above 2021 levels, they are behind 2020. But that is not what makes the housing market different from previous years. The most crucial point is that the share of new houses in total house sales in 2022 has decreased below 30%. The share of new residences in total sales was low in 2020 and 2021, but it fell to its lowest in 2022. New homes accounted for nearly half of sales in previous years, and that is what makes the market dynamic. In the last few years, second-hand houses have had an obvious weight in sales. We will see this picture generally continuing throughout the rest of the year.
The Republican People’s Party (CHP), Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) and People’s Democratic Party (HDP) will hold their parliamentary group meetings on Tuesday. AK Party and IYI Party will hold their parliamentary group meetings on Wednesday.
This week, Saadet Party Chairman Temel Karamollaoglu, who has started the leaders’ tour following his decision to hold a meeting with the leaders of all opposition parties included in the Strengthened Parliamentary System proposal, will convene with IYI Party Leader Meral Aksener and Gultekin Uysal, Leader of the Democrat Party (DP).
The legislative proposals on the amendment of the Foundation and Duties of the Turkish Exporters Assembly (TIM) and the Decree-Law No. 655 on the Organization and Duties of the Ministry of Transport, Maritime and Communications, the Banking Law and the Attorney’s act will also be discussed in Parliament this week.
The State-owned Enterprises Commission will continue audits. The commission will audit the 2019-2020 accounts of the General Directorate of Post and Telegraph Organization (PTT) and its subsidiaries on Tuesday, the Electricity Generation Company (EUAS), the Turkish Electromechanic Industries Co. (TEMSAN) and Ankara Dogal Elektrik Uretim ve Ticaret AS (ADUAS) on Wednesday.
DAILY AGENDA
The current account deficit (CAD) rose by USD 2.22bn to USD 5.55bn in March compared to the same month last year according to the Central Bank. The 12-month rolling CAD reached USD 24.22bn.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 11.4% in the first quarter (Q1), compared to the previous quarter, according to TurkStat.
The overall export unit value index surged by 10.7% while the overall import unit value index jumped 33.7% in March year-over-year according to TurkStat. The overall export volume index rose by 8.2% and the overall import volume index dropped by 2.2% in the same period.
The number of paid employees in the manufacturing, construction and trade services sectors rose by 6.5% to 13.8 million in March, compared to the same month last year, according to TurkStat.
Ministry of Treasury and Finance will release the central government’s budget balance table for April (11.00 a.m.).
IN OUR MAGAZINE THIS WEEK:
>> On the cover: The France-based global hospitality leader Accor will export a high-end version of the all-inclusive concept, which Turkey is very good at, to the world. Acquiring 70% of Rixos Hotels in 2017, Accor Group plans to grow in all-inclusive hotel management with the know-how from Fettah Tamince of Rixos. The group aims to increase the number of all-inclusive hotels operating under its Fairmont, Rixos, Sofitel, Swissotel, Pullman and Mövenpick brands to 100 in 2022 and 200 in the next five years, according to Yigit Sezgin, Accor Hotels Chief Commercial Officer. You can read the details on pages 8-9.
>> “Aspiring to achieve goals beyond your means is not a good idea,” Professor Ilter Turan says on page 10.
>> Q&A: Viktor Matis, Hungarian Ambassador to Ankara. P. 11.
>> Chief Economist Gunduz Findikcioglu: Turkish banks: A telling story. Pp. 12-13.
>> Zeynep Gurcanli: The issue of Syrian refugees; where and how will they go? You can read the details on page 14.
