Political uncertainty in Venezuela has added to volatility in global oil markets, leaving crude prices struggling for direction.
Brent crude has traded in a narrow $60-$62.5 a barrel range in recent sessions, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures dipped to around $58 a barrel earlier in the week before recovering.
Markets are assessing the potential impact of Washington’s moves on Venezuelan supply. While Venezuela accounts for a relatively small share of global output, its heavy crude is important for U.S. Gulf Coast refiners, making prices sensitive to political developments.
Analysts say a complex political transition could disrupt production and exports in the near term, posing downside risks to supply. Longer term, a more stable and investment friendly government could boost output, though foreign energy companies remain cautious.
Despite U.S. sanctions, Venezuelan oil continues to flow. Data from Reuters and TankerTrackers.com show around 12 tankers carrying roughly 12 million barrels of crude and fuel have left Venezuelan waters since the start of the year, many sailing with satellite tracking systems switched off, or in dark mode.
Meanwhile, oversupply concerns persist. Saudi Arabia has cut official selling prices for February loadings, with Aramco’s third consecutive reduction for Arab Light to Asia pushing prices to their lowest since January 2021, limiting upside pressure from Venezuela related risks.
