The Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) announced the gross domestic product (GDP) data covering the October-December 2023 period. Accordingly, the Turkish economy grew by 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. In the whole year of 2023, Turkey achieved 4.5 percent growth. Thus, a growth above the expectations of economists was realized.
Economists expected Turkey to grow by 3.97 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and 4.4 percent for the whole year.
The Turkish economy grew by 4 percent in the first quarter of 2023, 3.9 percent in the second quarter and 5.9 percent in the third quarter. In 2022, Turkey had grown by 5.6 percent.
GDP per capita in 2023 is calculated as TRY 307,952 at current prices and USD 13,110 in dollar terms.
When the activities that make up GDP are analyzed; In 2023 compared to the previous year as a chained volume index; total value added of finance and insurance activities increased by 9.0 percent, construction by 7.8 percent, services by 6.4 percent, other service activities by 4.6 percent, public administration, education, human health and social work activities by 3.8 percent, real estate activities by 2.7 percent, information and communication activities by 1.3 percent, professional, administrative and support service activities by 1.2 percent and industry by 0.8 percent. Agriculture sector decreased by 0.2 percent.
Household consumption up by 12.8 percent
Final consumption expenditures of resident households increased by 12.8 percent in 2023 compared to the previous year’s chained volume index. The share of household consumption expenditures in GDP was 59.1 percent. Final consumption expenditures of resident households increased by 9.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. Final consumption expenditures of the government and gross fixed capital formation increased by 1.7 percent and 10.7 percent, respectively.
According to the chained volume index of the previous year, exports of goods and services decreased by 2.7 percent in 2023, while imports increased by 11.7 percent. Exports of goods and services increased by 0.2 percent and imports increased by 2.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023 compared to the same quarter of the previous year.
Labor payments increased by 116 percent in 2023
While labor payments increased by 116.0 percent in 2023 compared to the previous year, net operating surplus/mixed income increased by 49.2 percent. In the fourth quarter of 2023, labor payments increased by 107.6 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year, while net operating surplus/mixed income increased by 55.0 percent.
While the share of labor payments in Gross Value Added at current prices was 26.3 percent last year, this ratio became 32.8 percent in 2023. The share of net operating surplus/mixed income, which was 53.7 percent last year, became 46.3 percent.
Construction and finance led the growth
AA Finance analyst and economist Haluk Bürümcekçi said that indicators regarding the strength of the growth trend point to a strengthening.
Bürümcekçi stated that the construction and finance sectors pulled the GDP calculated by the production method up in the last quarter and said, “According to the GDP data calculated by the expenditure method, private and public consumption and investment expenditures pulled growth up in the last quarter, while net foreign demand and inventory decline had a negative impact.”
Exports and industrial investments should be increased
Mehmet Baki Atılal, Deputy General Manager of A1 Capital, stated that the country’s economy displayed a strong performance in finance and insurance, and that there was a recovery in construction and a partial weakening in industry and agriculture.
Stating that exports should be increased as well as industrial investments, Atılal said that growth should be removed from the inflation effect and that it is important that the effect of gains in inflation is not delayed.
Slowdown due to Eurozone recession
Dr. İsmet Demirkol, Founder of Pariterium Consultancy, stated that the reason for the slowdown in growth in the third quarter and on an annual basis compared to 2022 was that the Eurozone entered recession.
Emphasizing that Turkey’s exports are mainly to the Eurozone, Demirkol stated that Turkey’s growth was affected downwards due to the recession in the Eurozone last year.
Stating that consumption is the biggest driving force in growth, Demirkol noted that tourism revenues also contributed positively to growth.
