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In Geopolitics

Sanctions on the horizon?

Last week, EU members met in Brussels to discuss a host of issues the Union faces in 2021. Sanctions against Turkey were on the table, ostensibly to punish it for what some members claim are its “illegal activities” in the Eastern Mediterranean. But unity in the Union is in short supply these days. The Greek...

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In Geopolitics

In-fighting in NATO

Last week’s meeting of NATO foreign ministers was supposed to address the alliance’s future and ways for it to stay relevant. Instead, it devolved into an acrimonious exchange of grievances, reinforcing the internal cleavages that plague it. Turkey was at the heart of the controversy, with outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo lashing out...

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In Geopolitics

Is This Really About Libya?

Last week’s run-in between a Turkey-flagged cargo ship and an EU maritime patrol, part of Operation IRINI set up to enforce the arms embargo on Libya, demonstrated once again that tensions on the Mediterranean Sea, far from easing, are deepening to worrisome levels. The issues are complex and Libya, a conflict that has exposed fault...

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In Geopolitics

Making sense of America

To put it diplomatically, the Trump administration, from the day it took office, has been unusual. No less so the transfer of power, if we can call it that. Since the presidential election was called in Joe Biden’s favor, Trump and his cohorts have acted in ways more akin to a dictatorship, refusing to concede...

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In Geopolitics

Who wins in Nagorno-Karabakh?

The end of hostilities marks a potentially historic moment in the decades-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. If the peace agreement holds, the major players in the region will all, to one degree or another, have achieved their goals, and what appears to be a loss suffered by the Armenians may translate into a win...

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In Geopolitics

In the U.S., a successful election but little solace

The U.S. elections may be over but the political turmoil that has roiled the world’s most powerful nation are really only beginning. For many observers, regardless of who won, the fact that the results were so close, dragging on for days, was the worst possible outcome. The uncertainty and instability will no doubt be felt...

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In Geopolitics

France, Islam and strategic nuance

The furor over Islam and its place in France is reaching unprecedented levels of acrimony in the aftermath of now two terrorist attacks that have left four dead. The hostilities were sparked after the satirical magazine, Charlie Hebdo, re-published cartoons of the prophet Muhammad at the beginning of September, the same cartoons that led to...

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In Geopolitics

Saudi desperation

So it is official: The Saudi government is actively attempting to block Turkish exports. The revelation will surprise no one who has followed the rising tensions between the two countries but it nonetheless signals an escalation. Why is Saudi Arabia raising tensions and how should Turkey respond? Adnan R. Khan: Could you briefly outline what...

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In Geopolitics

Turkey, Cyprus, and the geopolitics of the sea

As presidential elections in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus move into a runoff phase, a central question that has emerged is what the future of the island will look like. The question could not be more existential. On the one side, there is Mustafa Akıncı, the incumbent president who believes the future prosperity of...

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In Geopolitics

Russia’s unravelling

Russia faces escalating crises that may look manageable individually, but in the aggregate, represent an existential threat to the future of Vladimir Putin’s regime. At the same time, Russia’s woes could offer Turkey some opportunities. But is the AK Party in a position to take advantage? Adnan R, Khan: Could you briefly explain the challenges...