Article Category: Our Chief Economist

In its modern form, the packaging of the first CDO can be traced back to 1983, though the idea of a CDO originated earlier, i.e. in 1980. It is contemporaneous with the advent of Reagan and Thatcher, the period identified squarely with neo-liberalism in many circles. It changed the whole structure of Western Capitalism, and...

Since the GFC (Global Financial Crisis), there have been serious changes in how the American economy functions. Estimates of two key macroeconomic variables – the neutral interest rate and the natural unemployment rate – have been consistently lower since 2008. Recently Richard Clarida reported that the decline in the neutral real interest rate is a...

It is patently obvious that most international conflicts, even civil wars, are related to either fossil fuel deposits or to the distribution trajectory of proven reserves. Ukraine is no exception. However, such an observation doesn’t explain everything. Geopolitics is much more than just oil and natural gas. A timeline of the 20th century could give...

In the current war theatre, the most im portant players are Russia, the U.S. and some European countries, notably the UK. Many people emphasize that nobody truly cares about Ukraine, that it is just a pawn in their game. This may be so, indeed. Many countries have either been treated as pawns or designated as...

In 1919 Keynes wrote a book entitled The Economic Consequences of Peace. It was a little gem of a book, and a masterpiece of historical vision. Therein Keynes predicted that war reparations levied on Germany would trigger a second world war. Admittedly Hitler didn’t come to power simply because the German war debt was un-payable....

Yes it can. This doesn’t mean it will. Before 2019, the consensus view was that the incumbent party and Erdoğan would, somehow, almost always win. After the 2019 local elections the opposition saw an opportunity. Should the broad alliance that proved successful in so many municipalities be repeated on a large scale, the opposition could...

Hegel wrote in a famous paragraph, “real is rational”. He also wrote that, “rational is real”. So, the argument cuts both ways. If so, being out of touch with (economic, but not only economic) reality is tantamount to being irrational. Is it too heavy-handed an argument? Or is rationality an inalienable part of modernity? If...

Although its origins can be traced back to Greek philosophers, the concept of structural stability has been formalized with the tools of modern topology only relatively recently, in a seminal contribution by Andronov & Pontryagin (1937). Unlike dynamic stability, which relates to a property of a state or an orbit of a dynamic system, structural...

All ammunition has already been used. Resorting to reserves is impossible because there are none. Selling out of required reserves or swap money – they are both liabilities, not assets – can only delay the problem. The rate cutting sequence has been initiated in an out-of-equilibrium belief universe. If anybody thinks people will invest or...

Colonial powers held sway in China for nearly a century until Mao Tse-tung emerged victorious from the long-lasting battle in 1950. At this point, China became a sovereign state again. Mao did accomplish this, but his economic policy was a disaster. China was very poor when he died in 1976. The formerly accused and arrested...