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The foreign reserves issue

LAST NOVEMBER, when the Central Bank Governor was replaced and the Treasury and Finance minister resigned, the backstage in Ankara was shaken by the reserve issue and allegations that President Erdogan had only just been made aware of negative reserves. Three months have passed and until last week, there had been no objections to the...

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What positive changes are happening in TurkStat?

If the public was asked which institution they trust the least, without a doubt the answer would be the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). If they were then asked which of TurkStat’s data they find least reliable, it would be inflation. The public’s perception is that TurkStat calculates the inflation rate and when it turns out...

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2020 is over in terms of inflation, but its effects remain

THERE is a correlation, albeit not one-toone, between currency increases and price increases, particularly in producer prices. The change in producer prices is also reflected in consumer prices after a while, on a moderate scale. It should be underlined that the reflection from producer prices to consumer prices is limited due to the “structure of...

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People hanker for the past financial conditions

THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE index announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) stayed unchanged in December at 80.1. This means: “If the index is 100, we would know whether the consumer has an optimistic or pessimistic expectation regarding the economy because 100 is the optimistic-pessimistic limit. However, the consumer confidence index is below 100, showing that...

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Interest rate up, sales down!

HOUSE sales and secondhand transfers have decreased to levels that are considered normal. We neither see the lows we saw in April and May nor the highs due to advantageous loans. The interest rate on housing loans increased by nearly 2 points in the first week of December compared to the November average. That’s why...

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Foreigners gained both by selling and buying stocks

FROM the beginning of the year until November 6 non-residents were, with few exceptions, on a selling spree of Turkish stocks, off-loading a total of USD 5.8bn. This wave halted during the second week of November when foreigners began buying. I don’t think that the timing of this reversal is a coincidence. Although economic policies...

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We grew, but how?

THE third-quarter growth results exceeded expectations. It’s all very well and good but how did we reach this rate? The 8% growth in industry is understandable but is there anyone who can explain the 0.8% growth in the services sector? What about the 9.2% rise in consumption expenditures? How arewe going to interpret this growth...

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The outcry of an industrialist

APPROXIMATELY two months ago, on September 21, I published a letter from an otolaryngologist about challenges the profession faces. I titled that article, The wonderful cry of a doctor. Dr. Husrev Cetin summarized what doctors went through during the pandemic and how they grew old because of the virus. Let’s fast forward. On November 10,...

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Stating the obvious

THE promise Naci Agbal made as soon as he took the chair of the Central Bank has been fulfilled. ”The current situation and expectations will be reviewed and developments will be followed closely in order to make necessary policy decisions in the light of the data,” the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) said in the statement...

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How much will Central Bank raise the interest rate?

THE QUESTION is not whether the Central Bank will increase the interest rate on 19 November or not, the question is how much. Following the change in leadership at the Central Bank last weekend and the resignation of the Minister of Treasury that is believed to be closely related to it, expectations rapidly increased. It...