Turkey’s export to import coverage ratio in trade with its free trade agreement (FTA) partners has deteriorated markedly over the past decade, raising questions about the effectiveness of its FTA strategy. While exports covered imports by a strong 159% in 2015, the ratio fell to 98.1% in 2024 and declined further to 91.6% in the first ten months of 2025, pointing to a clear erosion in the trade balance.
According to data compiled from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), Turkey currently has FTAs with 22 countries and one country group. Although this expanding network initially appeared to support export growth, the overall outcome has fallen short of expectations. Trade volumes increased, but imports, particularly of high technology grew at a much faster pace than exports, reversing earlier surpluses.
In 2015, Turkey recorded exports of USD 38.9 billion and imports of USD 24.4 billion with its FTA partners, generating a trade surplus of USD 14.5 billion. By 2024, exports rose to USD 49.1 billion, while imports exceeded USD 50 billion, pushing the coverage ratio below the critical 100% threshold. In the first ten months of 2025, exports reached USD 43.8 billion, compared with USD 47.9 billion in imports, resulting in a trade deficit of around USD 4 billion.
The data reveal a sharp divergence between different groups of FTA partners. Turkey maintains very high export coverage ratios with several Balkan and North African countries, while trade with high technology economies has increasingly shifted against Turkey.
South Korea stands out as the most problematic FTA partner, with imports dominated by electronics, automotive components, machinery, batteries and semiconductors. In the first ten months of 2025, Turkey’s exports to South Korea remained below USD 1 billion, while imports exceeded USD 8.4 billion, leaving the coverage ratio close to 11%.
A similar imbalance is observed in trade with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA Switzerland, Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein), where Switzerland plays a decisive role. Imports of pharmaceuticals, chemicals, watches and advanced industrial products have surged far beyond export levels, pushing the coverage ratio down to around 22% in the first ten months of 2025.
By contrast, the United Kingdom represents one of the most successful FTA cases for Turkey. Exports have consistently exceeded imports since 2015, and in the first ten months of 2025, exports reached USD 14.5 billion against imports of around USD 6 billion, lifting the export to import coverage ratio to approximately 241%.
Overall, the figures suggest that Turkey’s challenge lies not in the number of its FTA partners but in the structural composition of trade. While exports remain concentrated in low and medium technology products, dependence on high technology imports continues to deepen. Without a shift toward higher value added and technology intensive exports, free trade agreements risk further weakening Turkey’s external balance rather than strengthening it.
