Container carriers have begun a gradual return to the Red Sea route after nearly two years of diverting around the Cape of Good Hope, marking what could be one of the most significant shifts in global trade in 2026.
Traffic data from July–October 2025 shows a clear recovery, following a sharp decline in 2024 due to regional tensions and route avoidance. The Suez Canal handles over 15% of global goods trade and up to twice that share in container traffic. Restoring the route could save more than 3,000 nautical miles and around 10 days on the Asia–Northwest Europe line, freeing roughly 6% of global fleet capacity.
Major carriers including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd and CMA CGM say they are ready to resume transits once security conditions stabilize.
According to ING, European ports may face a brief period of crowding as ships begin arriving ahead of schedule, temporarily pushing freight rates higher. Prices are expected to come under strong downward pressure once schedules normalize, supported by a major expansion in capacity when new vessels—equal to about 32% of today’s global fleet—enter service in 2026. While slowing ships down may help absorb some of the surplus capacity, retiring older vessels will take time. Carriers therefore remain cautious, citing still-elevated Suez transit insurance premiums and concerns over further disruptions.
Impact on Turkey
Turkish operators expect the global market to normalize but say the impact on Turkey’s trade flows will be gradual. Although the shorter route should put downward pressure on container rates, carriers continue to factor in higher fuel, time, insurance and security costs accumulated over the past year, making a sharp, immediate drop in freight rates for exporters unlikely.
For lasting relief on Far East Mediterranean routes full security restoration, stable capacity planning and lower insurance premiums will be essential. Industry representatives anticipate a mild easing trend rather than steep short-term declines, with meaningful price stabilization expected over a longer period.
