Author: Murat Basboga (Murat Basboga)

After a horrible year with devastating human losses globally, investment bankers beamed themselves to a different universe, dealt with skyrocketing IPOs, SPACs, equities, etc. Risk on mode triggered heavily, with the help of vaccination efforts in developed countries, huge plans in infrastructure investment, supports for the common people to survive, at least for now. The...

Just a fortnight ago, all market watchers waited for decisions from major central banks, as well as Turkey. First the CBRT raised rates to 19%, above expectations. Managed by Naci Agbal, the action created a positive boost in the following days. Then, in just 48 hours, Mr Agbal was removed from his post with a...

The U.S. Federal Reserve is still asking the market to believe in the Goldilocks scenario: an economy that’s sufficiently hot that we’ll see rampant growth this year, but not so hot that any “bulge” in inflation, to use Chairman Jerome Powell’s words, becomes problematic. And, as if that’s not enough for the equity bulls, there’s...

The stabilization of U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting this week has brought some relief to emerging markets assets at large, even though concerns about the trajectory of U.S. Treasury yields and the recent outflows continue to dominate market sentiment. However, market watchers believe that the market backdrop is...

There have been two weeks this year that have reminded me of the Dallas TV series in 1986 where Pam Ewing wakes up from a dream at the end of a ratings flop of a series to find Bobby Ewing in the shower and that his death (and the death of the entire series) was...

All along the rally since the first days of the coronavirus pandemic, the effect on emerging markets was limited, especially from a markets perspective. As the U.S.-outlined new fiscal plan boosts its economy, the effects on emerging markets via trade are likely to be limited as well. Market watchers doubt the Fed will move more...

Market watchers rather become used to government bond prices and equity prices moving in tandem, a legacy, it would seem, of the ‘everything rally’ as central banks flood the markets with liquidity. They are still doing that but, so far this year, equity prices are on the rise while bond prices have fallen. Does this...

Net portfolio inflows into many emerging markets reached multiyear NET PORTFOLIO highs toward the end of 2020, which allowed a handful of central banks to lean against the wind and accumulate foreign exchange reserves. That said, early data suggest that net portfolio inflows have slowed considerably so far this year. To recap, many emerging markets...

The current level of sterling is very close to what the UK Treasury might have anticipated back in June 2016 when the country voted to leave the EU. But that does not mean that it will continue to be correct. Not long before the June 2016 referendum on EU membership, the UK Treasury issued a...

After a detailed analysis of the Great Recession, a LET ME EXPLAIN BRIEFLY: large group of economists agreed that governments watched events like a train crash in the making. Sorry to use the same analogy, but the world economy may face the same situation after everything settles. Like the Long Covid phenomenon, the world will...