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Author: Murat Basboga (Murat Basboga)

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The first 100 days

Last Thursday marked the 100th day of Joe Biden’s presidency in the U.S., and over that time the S&P 500 Index has gained 10.9%. Purely judged in stock market terms, this marks the most successful start to a presidency since Franklin Roosevelt in 1933, who swiftly passed a number of measures to get the country...

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A rare earth

Avid readers of the financial press may already be familiar with the rare earth (commodities) and their oxides, used by manufacturers of turbines and cars. To cut to the chase, the rare and most precious commodity is stability. Maybe it may be a far-reaching analogy, but it works fine. If you would like to have...

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Timing for inflation

Government bond markets, and particularly the treasury market have been concerned this year about the possibility of sharp increases in inflation. Are these concerns valid? The answer is ‘yes-and-no’. The markets should be wise to the prospects of higher inflation over the longer-term, but calm about rising prices in coming months. Concerns about inflation have...

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Strong footing

The upbeat momentum with the vaccination program in developed countries has helped accelerate the boost in the markets. A marked increase in U.S. Treasury bond yields pressured higher growth areas of the equity markets and accompanying U.S. dollar strength was also a headwind for emerging markets. Emerging markets investors are exhibiting a lack of market...

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Risk on

After a horrible year with devastating human losses globally, investment bankers beamed themselves to a different universe, dealt with skyrocketing IPOs, SPACs, equities, etc. Risk on mode triggered heavily, with the help of vaccination efforts in developed countries, huge plans in infrastructure investment, supports for the common people to survive, at least for now. The...

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Roller-coaster

Just a fortnight ago, all market watchers waited for decisions from major central banks, as well as Turkey. First the CBRT raised rates to 19%, above expectations. Managed by Naci Agbal, the action created a positive boost in the following days. Then, in just 48 hours, Mr Agbal was removed from his post with a...

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Believing fairy tales

The U.S. Federal Reserve is still asking the market to believe in the Goldilocks scenario: an economy that’s sufficiently hot that we’ll see rampant growth this year, but not so hot that any “bulge” in inflation, to use Chairman Jerome Powell’s words, becomes problematic. And, as if that’s not enough for the equity bulls, there’s...

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Differentiation

The stabilization of U.S. Treasury yields ahead of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting this week has brought some relief to emerging markets assets at large, even though concerns about the trajectory of U.S. Treasury yields and the recent outflows continue to dominate market sentiment. However, market watchers believe that the market backdrop is...

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Back to school

There have been two weeks this year that have reminded me of the Dallas TV series in 1986 where Pam Ewing wakes up from a dream at the end of a ratings flop of a series to find Bobby Ewing in the shower and that his death (and the death of the entire series) was...

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Cavalry effect

All along the rally since the first days of the coronavirus pandemic, the effect on emerging markets was limited, especially from a markets perspective. As the U.S.-outlined new fiscal plan boosts its economy, the effects on emerging markets via trade are likely to be limited as well. Market watchers doubt the Fed will move more...

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