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Author: Gunduz Findikcioglu (Gunduz Findikcioglu)

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In Our Chief Economist

Populism and Unreason

LET US PUT things in a historical balance sheet. In 1979, when the world was hit by the second oil shock, pent up inflation was unleashed and reached double digits. Jimmy Carter appointed Paul Volcker to the Fed and Volcker immediately hiked the interest rate and curbed all monetary aggregates, M1, M2 and M3. By...

Article
In Our Chief Economist

From here to there

ACTUALLY, the unforgettable classic movie’s name was ‘From here to eternity’, but we can’t reach that far amid incredibly noisy signaling and suchlike. Not only is the surrounding politico-economic space at large noisy, i.e. Eastern Mediterranean, Libya, Greece, U.S. elections, etc., but also the monetary policy space itself is – or was – so until...

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In Our Chief Economist

Zero and infinity

THE tide turns again. The Fed has initiated a sea-change. This may have an impact similar to Bernanke’s May 22, 2013 speech that initiated the ‘taper tantrum’, only currently the direction of the change is opposite to that. Basically, and after Clarida’s vindication of Powell, the Fed managed to broker a carte blanche. The cheque...

Article
In Our Chief Economist

Black Sea puzzles

BEGINNING with the pamphleteers of the 16th century, several authors have pointed to the roots of Spanish economic woes and singled out the influx of Mexican and Peruvian precious metals, a phenomenon that is worth labelling Moctezuma’s curse. Moctezuma II – in some sources Montezuma II – was the Aztec emperor when conquistador Hernán Cortes...

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In Our Chief Economist

Dominant currency, foreign trade, and the exchange rate

THE LIRA has almost always been weak since 2013. Lira strength is but a remnant of the past. After the 2001 Crisis when the Dervis-IMF programme was in vogue, and the ‘savings glut’ flooded the globe with cheap dollars, the TRY gained strength. That was the episode between 2003 and 2008. Somehow people were called...

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