I HAVE TRIED to summarize four themes that might characterize 2021. The first is Trump’s legacy, or lack thereof. The second is Biden’s burden and what has to change in world trade and international politics. Third is the onset of COVID-19, both as a health issue and an economic problem as sovereign debt rises throughout....
Author: Gunduz Findikcioglu (Gunduz Findikcioglu)
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What may happen this year?
I HAVE SINGLED out two scenarios. They pertain to both global and local dynamics, which are intertwined in the days of COVID. The first encompasses a rapid amelioration of economic conditions due to the positive impact of vaccines. The second is based on a more pessimistic view that claims the outbreak won’t be easily contained...
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2021: A brave new world?
WELL, that is the end, folks! We have finally come to the anti-climax and first, all positive expectations, and then all the calamity forecasts are borne out by events; they have become realities. The new era is not only characterized by lower interest rates, but also by lower growth throughout the global economy. It is...
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Endogeneity of the money supply and credit
IT IS TIME to offer a few guesstimates on what 2021 may bring. My focus is on the Turkish economy and finances. First, a very quick reminder of what has happened over the last three years. I am concentrating on monetary policy only, not on structural weaknesses and such. I emphasize endogenous money, and don’t...
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Bringing back economic serenity
Finally, the Central Bank has come to the rescue. True, there is a shortage of funds to rekindle investments. Again, it is no secret that net reserves are about minus USD 45bn. Also, it would take more than one step to convince households – let alone high net worth individuals, who would obviously behave defensively...
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Policies and polities
MANY excellent economists have observed that globalization is a “golden straitjacket”. Many authors who have related openness to growth and so forth have discussed just how golden the jacket is. But how strait are the constraints imposed by financial openness on macroeconomic policies has not been equally accounted for. The “under-researched” situation of the trilemma...
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Covidonomics
AS INFLATION reached 14% in November, elements of covidonomics gathered a new meaning. Isn’t it odd that as economic activity weakens, demand for tourism-services-restaurants shrink, travel and all that collapses globally, productivity falls and supply chains are in a deadlock, and inflation goes up? Certainly awkward, but then no country has experienced such currency depreciation.At...
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Economic theology
THERE are signs that a mini-rally may have started, especially in the currency market. Unless monetary policy loosens, there is a possibility that the lira will equilibrate around about what is at currently for some time. That would be 7.50-8.00 perhaps, unless something more radical imposes itself or is administratively orchestrated successfully so confidence is...
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Monetary policy games
FINALLY, the CBRT showed a clear opening that made sense to all. After all, monetary policy is a game, maybe like chess. As such it isn’t tightening per se because the effective funding was already at 14.80% the day the policy rate was raised to 15%, but a return to normalcy in the monetary policy...
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Games and gaming
THE resignation of Minister Albayrak played havoc with financial markets for almost a day although the lira gained value a bit. However, this had nothing to do with the resignation per se, or so I think. It had more to do with global markets and the news that the new CBRT Governor could raise the...