BY ALAATTIN AKTAS We know very well that the inflation rate for 2022 will be between 65-70% even at the widest margin. When we finish the year at 67% with 3% increases in November and December, the increase in the second half of the year will be 17.60% This 17.60 percent inflation difference will be...
The CAD is big and its financing is bad!
To what extent does the misery index influence voters’ choices?
AI and beyond
Budget deficit risk of around 7% of GDP
Tourism revenues rise higher than the number of tourists
Need for anchor
Patents with technological advances in the automotive ecosystem
Let’s estimate FX rates…
Inflation soared while the policy rate was lowered
Famous banks’ election expectations
Energy and gold don’t explain the CAD
Levent Kafkasli becomes GM of GAP Insaat
Global tension: Is it decision time for Turkey?
When you don’t learn from a mistake from 30 years ago
UNDP sends containers to the quake-hit region
Annualized foreign trade deficit tripled in 1.5 years
KKM, liraization: Fiddlesticks!
Capacity usage down contrary to real sector confidence
The home stretch for 2023 regulations
Growth slowed in Q3 and will slow further in Q4
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The Turkish economy grew by 3.9% in the third quarter (Q3), hitting a 3-year low. The growth rate was 7.9% in Q3 2021 and 6.5% in Q3 2020. But what will things look like for a longer period? Let’s look at two more pieces of data to get a better idea. The...
Interest burden on domestic debt climbing
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The official data announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance shows that some of the steps taken by the economy management are not working well, and have even had the opposite effect, at least for public finances. The interest rate journey, which started at 19% a year ago in September, will...
Slowdown in the manufacturing industry becomes more significant
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS Steps were taken so that the wheels turning in the manufacturing industry and production didn’t grind to a halt, so that employment didn’t decline (it is increasing), and so that growth could continue. To ensure this, the policy rate has been cut for the last year, knowing this would cause inflation. On...
Revision reduced CAD and net E&O
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The revision in travel revenues announced by TurkStat was reflected in the balance of payments data from the the Central Bank (CB), dating back to 2012. The current account deficit (CAD) declined by USD 26.71bn from 2012 to August 2022, but the figure was USD 26.79bn in the CB’s revision statement. The...
Spending is the best way to save, given inflation and negative returns!
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS It is said that savings should be increased as the country. Expanding the economic instrument range and shifting consumption are seen as the primary ways to increase savings. This is correct on paper. However, the exact opposite is behavior is observed in the inflation environment in Turkey. It’s hard to save money...
Inflation peak likely to be here: 85.51%
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The peak in annual consumer prices for this year has likely already occurred. Monthly inflation rose by 3.54% and annual inflation reached 85.51% in October. If the hike in November remains below 3.51%, a decline, which we have long been talking about, will begin. If inflation exceeds 3.51% in November, the annual...
The CB shouldn’t have tried too hard to fail
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS It’s written on the top of the Central Bank’s (CB) official website that the primary objective of the Bank is to achieve and maintain price stability. Moreover, the expression ‘price stability’ is highlighted. CB managers should go to their website and look at this phrase to remind themselves of their primary objectives....
Policy rate cut 1.5 points
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS I was wrong, but I wasn’t the only one. Almost everyone expected the policy rate to be reduced by one point, but it was cut by 1.5 points. The policy rate was cut from 12% to 10.5%. An important detail indicating what will happen in the coming period was included in the...
Is the increase in net E&O before elections a coincidence?
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The 8-month net errors and omissions (E&O) in the Turkish budget totaled USD 28.3bn. E&O have increased significantly this year. In Turkey, there has been a significant, indirect link between elections and E&O since 2011. Turkey grants fiscal amnesty before almost all elections. In this way, FX taken abroad or that which...