BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The election will be held in four or five months. A lot of promises will be given. Although it’s normal if the opposition gives promises, weird things happen in Turkey and the government can show the same approach. But there are also calculations made by the government. Their basic starting point is...
Author: Alaattin Aktas (Alaattin Aktas)
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Has anyone seen a decrease in prices?
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS We have made a mess of inflation. It’s heading downwards now. This has happened not only in the rate of increase of consumer prices, the first thing that comes to mind when we say inflation, but also in many indices. Let’s remember the course of primary indices: ►The annual hike in consumer...
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Happy anniversary to the big FX operation!
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The Central Bank’s (CB) policy rate, which had been kept steady for five months after it was increased to 19% in March, was cut starting on September 23, 2021. The policy rate was cut from 15% to 14% on December 16 and fell below inflation. When people started to buy up foreign...
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Why should foreign investors come to Turkey?
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS Let’s say you are an investor. There is a country that offers you all kinds of opportunities, where the most authoritative voices say, “We can overcome any legislative obstacle, you just come.” The market is large, export opportunities are rich, but you have a question in your mind: What will you do...
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The home stretch for 2023 regulations
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS We know very well that the inflation rate for 2022 will be between 65-70% even at the widest margin. When we finish the year at 67% with 3% increases in November and December, the increase in the second half of the year will be 17.60% This 17.60 percent inflation difference will be...
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Growth slowed in Q3 and will slow further in Q4
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The Turkish economy grew by 3.9% in the third quarter (Q3), hitting a 3-year low. The growth rate was 7.9% in Q3 2021 and 6.5% in Q3 2020. But what will things look like for a longer period? Let’s look at two more pieces of data to get a better idea. The...
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Interest burden on domestic debt climbing
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The official data announced by the Ministry of Treasury and Finance shows that some of the steps taken by the economy management are not working well, and have even had the opposite effect, at least for public finances. The interest rate journey, which started at 19% a year ago in September, will...
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Slowdown in the manufacturing industry becomes more significant
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS Steps were taken so that the wheels turning in the manufacturing industry and production didn’t grind to a halt, so that employment didn’t decline (it is increasing), and so that growth could continue. To ensure this, the policy rate has been cut for the last year, knowing this would cause inflation. On...
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Revision reduced CAD and net E&O
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS The revision in travel revenues announced by TurkStat was reflected in the balance of payments data from the the Central Bank (CB), dating back to 2012. The current account deficit (CAD) declined by USD 26.71bn from 2012 to August 2022, but the figure was USD 26.79bn in the CB’s revision statement. The...
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Spending is the best way to save, given inflation and negative returns!
BY ALAATTIN AKTAS It is said that savings should be increased as the country. Expanding the economic instrument range and shifting consumption are seen as the primary ways to increase savings. This is correct on paper. However, the exact opposite is behavior is observed in the inflation environment in Turkey. It’s hard to save money...