The loss in the national income will amount to TRY 145bn by 2030 if Turkey does not open the door to a green transformation and face the realities of the carbon border adjustment, according to Prof. Dr. Alp Erinc Yeldan, lecturer at Kadir Has University.

Yeldan said during his presentation made to the Parliament’s Global Climate Change Research Commission that the European Green Deal and Paris Agreement are a brand-new transformation tool aimed at sustainable development. “Significant improvements can be achieved in the national income, employment and greenhouse emissions with the support of the green economic transformation scenario and usage of green funds for companies’ green transformation,” he added. The concept of a ‘green central bank’ has been adopted by Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank and one of its most passionate supporters, according to the Kadir Has University Professor. “Ccentral banks are not just seen as ensuring inflation targets or price stability anymore. They will be directly included in issues such as green central banking, allocation of green loans and green finance,” Yeldan noted. The national income totaled TRY 3.8tr in 2018 and Turkey will reach a TRY 5.3tr economy at 2018 prices with the potential growth rate by 2030, if it doesn’t experience an internal or external shock, according to Professor Yeldan. “If Europe imposes a EUR 30 carbon cost tax per tonne on our exports with its Green Deal and if Turkey doesn’t sign the Paris Agreement and doesn’t open its doors to green finance, green loan and green transformation within foreign direct capital investments, there will be a loss of TRY 145bn in our national economy by 2030 at 2018 prices,” he said, adding that this roughly amounts to TRY 30bn per year corresponding to the country’s yearly current account deficit.

TURKEY ‘UNDER THE MICROSCOPE’

The Carbon Border Adjustment will be adapted in the form of an export tax on goods to be exported from Turkey. Turkey’s total greenhouse gas emissions have increased by 130% from 220 million tonnes to 500 million tonnes to date, roughly 1% of total global emissions, according to Alp Erinc Yeldan. “Although this seems low, projections show that Turkey will create more greenhouse gas emissions than all of Europe as well as Russia by 2030 if it continues at this pace,” said Yeldan, adding that its high rate of emissions growth has made it a country of concern among climate expertsthat is scrutinized .

Turkey became a signatory of Paris Agreement in 2015. However, it is one of six countries that haven’t ratified it. This poses a threat, isolating Turkey in foreign policy and even discrediting the country in the international climate arena, alongside countries like Iran, Syria, Eritrea, Angola, and South Sudan.